At the opening of trading on Friday, the dollar to ruble rate rose by 37.75 kopecks, reaching 89.74 rubles per dollar compared with the previous closing level. The move was captured by data from the Moscow Exchange, which tracks the morning dynamics of the currency market and provides a snapshot of how sentiment and liquidity were shaping the session. The euro moved in the opposite direction, sliding 26.25 kopecks to 99.36 rubles as traders reassessed risk and the demand for foreign currency in the domestic market.
Meanwhile, the yuan to ruble rate edged up by 0.05 kopecks, standing at 12,601 rubles per yuan. This modest uptick reflected the ongoing balancing act between domestic demand for hard currency and the broader macroeconomic forces influencing exchange rates at the start of the week. Market participants monitor these cross-rates closely, since even small shifts can signal shifts in trader appetite and the flow of capital across borders.
On December 28, the dollar briefly traded below the 90 ruble mark for the first time since December 19, signaling a momentary softening in U.S. currency strength against the ruble amid domestic liquidity conditions and evolving export dynamics. The euro also touched a friendly level in the early hours of trading on Thursday, slipping below 100 rubles for the first time since December 21, illustrating how commodity cycles, sanctions-era volatility, and regional financial flows are shaping day-to-day price action in this market.
Dmitry Zavorotny, who previously led the Center for Economic Strategies, attributed the dollar and euro gains to an outflow of U.S. currency from Russia and to exporters showing reluctance to bring foreign currency into the country at that moment. His analysis points to a balance-of-payments backdrop where reserve management, import finance decisions by large firms, and currency hedging strategies all influence short-term moves in the ruble against major currencies. The commentary underscores how capital flow dynamics—particularly the preference of companies to avoid locking in unfavorable rates—can press on both the dollar and euro in volatile trading conditions.
Tatyana Belyanchikova, a candidate of economic sciences and associate professor at the Department of World Financial Markets and Fintech at the Russian University of Economics GV Plekhanova, offered a counterpoint about the near-term trajectory. She suggested that a 60 rubles per dollar scenario in 2024 remains unlikely. In her view, a band around 85 to 90 rubles per dollar would be a more realistic target for the year, should structural factors align with monetary policy expectations and external conditions. Her assessment reflects a pragmatic view of the ruble’s valuation amid ongoing inflation control measures and external balance considerations.
Earlier analyst commentary highlighted a period of heightened ruble volatility from December 25 to December 29, signaling a phase of increased price swings as traders weighed the influence of seasonal liquidity shifts, central bank signals, and geopolitical developments on currency risk premia. The market narrative during this stretch emphasized the sensitivity of the ruble to shifts in risk appetite, cash flows from export sectors, and the pace of policy normalization relative to global dollar strength. Analysts and market observers continue to monitor the pace of price discovery, looking for clearer directional cues from macro data, policy guidance, and the evolving stance of international markets.