In November, demand for dollars and euros in Russia surged to near-record levels. Citizens purchased currency totaling 160 billion rubles in a single month, a figure about a third higher than October. This spike was noted in a Kommersant article that cited a study on the risks facing Russia’s financial markets conducted by the Central Bank.
Mikhail Korolyuk, who leads the trust management department at the investment company Solid, suggested that the public’s currency purchases may signal a belief in a temporary strengthening of the ruble’s exchange rate. He warned, however, that this approach might not be the most prudent move given the Moscow Exchange could face Western sanctions at any moment, which would cast uncertainty over asset values in such a scenario.
According to Korolyuk, those buying dollars appear to doubt that the current exchange rate level will hold. He added that if he were considering a dollar-focused speculation, he would prefer to pursue futures rather than spot purchases, noting that he did not have up-to-date information on whether the greenback remained active on the market.
Data from the Moscow Exchange showed the ruble trading around 91.5928 per dollar and 98.454 per euro at 17:30 Moscow time on Friday. The American currency had dropped about 50.72 kopecks from Thursday’s close, while the euro declined by roughly 1.13 rubles. Since the morning, the ruble had been depreciating against major world currencies but then began to claw back some of its losses.
BCS World of Investments stock market analyst Dmitry Babin commented that current oil prices are weighing on the ruble. He pointed to Brent crude trading in a roughly $73 to $76 per barrel range on that Friday, a dynamic that tends to influence the exchange rate through energy export earnings and broader market sentiment.
Analysts also noted that Russian exporters might adjust their currency strategies in light of volatility, with some reportedly preferring to convert foreign currency holdings to rubles when feasible to manage exposure and liquidity. This shift, if sustained, could help the currency stabilize in the medium term, though it remains sensitive to global commodity prices and geopolitical developments.
Experts emphasized a cautious outlook. While some market participants anticipate temporary ruble strength, others warn that sanctions risk and global oil dynamics could reverse gains. The central bank’s ongoing monitoring and risk assessment are expected to influence policy signals and investor sentiment in the weeks ahead.