The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is anticipated to raise the policy rate by about 1.5 percentage points, bringing the range to roughly 9.5–10% annually, during an extraordinary board meeting slated for 15 August. This outlook comes from Vasily Karpunin, head of the information and analytical content team at BCS World of Investments, who shared the assessment with socialbites.ca.
According to Karpunin, the regulator appears determined to tighten monetary conditions. At a time when import demand remains high and lending activities are under pressure, a rate increase could help cool demand and curb the ruble’s depreciation. Even before the extraordinary meeting was announced, many analysts were already signaling a possible one-point hike. Given the current trajectory and the likelihood of a September move, the regulator might choose to act ahead of the next scheduled session rather than wait for the subsequent meeting, which is only about a month away. Karpunin stressed that a 1.5-point lift is a plausible scenario.
The expert suggested that announcing the decision at a planned briefing the day before, rather than making a plain, on-the-spot decision, could be a signal that the Central Bank aims to provide the market with clear, comprehensive guidance on its stance and the factors driving the choice.
On balance, Karpunin does not foresee a markedly aggressive increase on Tuesday. He indicated there could be a pause for a month to assess the effects of prior tightening, with a potential resumption of rate hikes on 15 September if the situation requires it. He noted that there is less reason for a dramatic surge in policy in the current climate, given there are no immediate financial stability risks comparable to February 2022, when the policy rate peaked at 20% after rapid tightening.
Taking into account the rise in oil prices, stronger foreign exchange inflows from exporters (which have lagged in response), the ongoing monetary policy consolidation, and a decision to forgo purchases of foreign currency under the budget rule, the dollar could rebound against the ruble to the 90–95 ruble per dollar band in the coming months, according to the analyst.
Recent trading sessions reflected renewed volatility, with the dollar trading above the 100 ruble level at the closing auction on Monday, as reported on the Moscow Stock Exchange.
These observations come as market participants weigh the likely path of monetary policy and its broader implications for inflation, capital flows, and currency dynamics in Russia. (source: socialbites.ca; attribution provided for context and verification.)