The forecast for the Central Bank of the Russian Federation shows a likelihood of a policy-rate increase at the September 15 meeting. Market participants listen closely as a portfolio manager from Alfa Capital Management Company, Evgeny Zhornist, suggested to Izvestia that a rise of 50 to 100 basis points could be on the table. The stance reflects a balance of risks facing the central bank at that moment, with many observers expecting policymakers to respond decisively if inflation or other pressures shift the risk balance markedly.
Analysts emphasize that any move will hinge on how risks to inflation evolve and how the bank weighs the strength of disinflation against price pressures. The central bank has consistently pointed to the need to anchor inflation expectations, and experts argue that tightening in September would not come as a surprise if the inflation readings and the outlook justify a firmer policy stance. The central bank’s deliberations are framed by the current disinflation path, the labor market, and energy prices, all of which influence the risk assessment at the policy meeting.
Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin, in a discussion published by Izvestia on August 9, underscored that a September increase would be contingent on the realization of disinflationary risks that currently appear limited. He explained that while the trend toward lower inflation is underway, the team must verify that these risks are adequately contained to sustain a higher policy rate without derailing growth or financial stability.
Presently, the key interest rate stands at 8.5 percent per year. The bank increased the rate by 100 basis points at the July 21 decision, citing inflation running above the target of 4 percent on an annual basis. Market observers, including Mikhail Vasiliev, Chief Analyst at Sovcombank, suggested in mid-July that a further rise of around 50 basis points could be anticipated for the September meeting. By that point, inflation may surpass 5 percent on an annual basis, prompting the regulator to take additional steps to guide the economy toward the target while guarding against overheating and ensuring financial stability.
Earlier coverage highlighted how the key policy rate interacts with Russian households and the broader economy. Analysts noted that changes in the rate affect borrowing costs, savings behavior, and the pace of credit growth, with consequences that ripple through consumer spending, investment, and employment. The discussion around September reflects a careful calibration: the central bank must balance the need to moderate demand with the risk of slowing real activity more than intended, all while keeping inflation expectations anchored in the medium term.