The potential one-time revenues from large enterprises contributing to the Russian budget may approach 470 billion rubles. This figure is 1.6 times higher than the 300 billion rubles that the Russian Ministry of Finance announced. The claim comes from media coverage of a study conducted by the Center for Economic Expertise within the Institute of State and Municipal Administration of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, cited by News Agency reports.
The study suggests that a contingency tax rate could be adjusted to 3.2 percent to ensure a 300 billion ruble contribution. The Higher School of Economics notes that this estimate was derived from Rosstat’s aggregated data on the financial results of profitable organizations and the public financial statements of companies.
As explained by Ilya Gülenkov, a leading analyst at the Center for Economic Perspectives of the State Medical University School of Economics, the actual calculation will be performed for each organization separately, based on individual tax returns. This approach implies that the total collection could reach 470 billion rubles, given variations across entities.
Aghvan Mikaelyan, a member of the board of FinExpertiza, an audit and consultancy network, also indicated that the possible one-time contribution could exceed the amount initially announced by authorities. He noted that while such supplementary payments would bring temporary relief to the budget, they would not fundamentally resolve the budget deficit. He emphasized that a more substantial improvement would require higher production and export volumes or a reduction in the revenue drop from hydrocarbons.
According to the 2023 budget framework, revenues were projected at 26.1 trillion rubles with expenditures estimated at 29 trillion rubles, implying a deficit near 2.9 trillion rubles by year-end. These figures reflect the fiscal gap facing the treasury and the ongoing debates about how best to balance the books in the coming years.
Former Finance Minister Anton Siluanov suggested that the expected collection rate from large-enterprise profits might hover around 5 percent of excess profits for 2021 and 2022. He added that the payment of this fee could be deferred until 2024, allowing companies time to adapt to the new fiscal measure. This timeline underscores the government’s cautious approach to implementing the levy while managing short-term liquidity considerations for major corporations.