The Bank of Russia is anticipated to raise its key interest rate at the upcoming board meeting on December 15. This projection comes from Georgiy Ostapkovich, who leads the Market Research Center at the Institute of Statistical Research and Information Economics within the National Research University Higher School of Economics. He outlined the forecast in a discussion with Moscow 24, emphasizing that the central bank could tighten policy in response to evolving economic conditions.
Ostapkovich suggested a 100-basis-point hike, moving the rate from 15% to 16%. He pointed to several supporting factors, including the current trajectory of inflation, which shows signs of persistent strength. The economist stressed that inflation remains a key driver in policy deliberations and that rising prices influence market expectations and the central bank’s posture.
According to him, the central bank also closely monitors household inflation expectations. The central bank routinely conducts surveys on what people anticipate regarding future price movements, and the results of these surveys feed into the decision-making process. This dynamic, Ostapkovich explained, means that public sentiment about price levels can have a direct impact on the policy path chosen by the regulator.
Izvestia previously cited a survey of 16 financial market representatives. The respondents generally anticipated a rate increase from 15% to 16% at the December 15 meeting. None of the analysts surveyed expected a decision to keep the rate at 15%. Some participants, including PSB and DOM.RF Bank, did not rule out stability at 15%, while others, such as Zenit and Absolut Bank, suggested a move to 17% is plausible given current conditions.
With the key rate in focus, questions arise about how households and businesses might respond. For homeowners, the current rate environment raises considerations about mortgage affordability and potential profitability under new terms. A former real estate agent noted that borrowers could benefit from a rate adjustment if it translates into favorable borrowing costs or improved loan conditions. Prospective buyers and existing borrowers alike weigh the implications for monthly payments, total interest over the loan life, and overall housing affordability. Market observers emphasize the importance of evaluating loan features, such as fixed or variable rates, repayment schedules, and any available policy-driven incentives that could affect borrowing costs over time.