Bank of Russia Expected to Hold Key Rate at 16% into 2025
The Bank of Russia is anticipated to keep its key policy rate at 16 percent following the upcoming meeting on February 16. This view comes from market watcher and researcher Alexey Zubets, who heads the Institute of Social and Economic Research at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Zubets notes that the central bank will keep a close watch on inflation dynamics during the first half of the year as part of its strategy to anchor price stability.
In the early days of the year, inflation readings will be closely watched. Traditionally Russian inflation has moved higher toward the end of the year, but this year has shown a break from that pattern. Inflation has held firm and even edged lower in some months, prompting institutions and analysts to await January data before drawing firmer conclusions. According to Zubets, the January figures will shape the central bank’s near term stance and could influence expectations for policy in the months ahead.
Looking forward, Zubets suggests the central bank could begin easing the rate by the summer, a move that would likely bring down lending costs for households and businesses. Such a shift would have broad implications for consumer finance and investment planning in Russia and could also impact regional markets closely tied to the ruble and commodity cycles.
In related commentary, mortgage broker and real estate expert Dmitry Rakuta has warned that housing loans may become more difficult to obtain for Russians in the near term. He predicts a notable contraction in the mortgage market, with lending accessibility facing tighter conditions as banks adjust to the policy environment and shifting inflation risk. The outlook implies higher credit standards and potential changes in loan pricing for new borrowers.
Former Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin has previously discussed the scale of mortgage borrowing in Russia, highlighting the significant volume of loans issued to households in recent years. His assessment underscores the sensitivity of the housing market to funding conditions and macroeconomic policy, a dynamic that remains in focus as authorities balance inflation, growth, and financial stability. In the United States and Canada, observers note that global monetary policy cycles can spill over through exchange rates, investment sentiment, and housing demand, heightening the importance of monitoring any prospective rate adjustments and their timing for international markets.