Market analysts from financial institutions expect a bounce in the ruble and Russian equities next week, driven by changes in oil prices. The outlook comes from industry reporting and surveys conducted by major news outlets.
With the peak of the January tax period approaching, expectations rise that tax-related flows could strengthen the ruble against the dollar and the yuan.
Alexander Bakhtin, an investment strategist formerly with BCS World of Investments, notes that ongoing transportation disruptions in the Red Sea could push Brent-type crude pricing toward the $80 per barrel level. This scenario would influence both currency and equity markets as traders weigh supply risks and demand recovery signals.
Viktor Grigoriev of Bank St. argues that any strengthening of the ruble would cap the upside for Russian stocks, suggesting the Moscow Exchange index may hover below 3200 points in the near term. In contrast, Evgeny Loktyukhov from PSB contends that sentiment improvements in global and domestic stock markets could lift the index toward 3250 or even 3300 points if optimism broadens.
Earlier, the Central Bank of Russia adjusted its official dollar and euro reference rates, a move that often reflects shifts in domestic liquidity conditions and international currency dynamics.
Bakhtin, an investment professional with a track record at BCS World of Investments, commented on the potential influence of Red Sea developments on the ruble’s trajectory, underscoring how geopolitics and trade routes can ripple through currency markets.