By the end of 2030, only 28 SSJ-100 aircraft are expected to remain in operative service, according to a report cited by Kommersant. This projection suggests the superjet fleet could be reduced by as much as fivefold, with more than 150 SSJ-100s currently deployed at present.
The forecast originates from the Irkut Corporation and United Engine Corporation, both affiliated with Rostec, which analyzed a scenario involving a shortage of spare engines and limited ability to repair a component identified as a hot part. Irkut acknowledged that mastering repairs to the hot part could potentially extend the fleet to 106 aircraft in operation (Kommersant).
One of the key factors highlighted is the potential replacement of the current SaM-146 engines, a joint Russian-French propulsion solution, with Russian alternatives. At the moment, SaM-146 engines are not being supplied to Russia, while PD-8 engines are expected to begin deliveries in 2024, a shift that could influence maintenance costs and availability of propulsion for the fleet (Kommersant).
The article notes that the question of maintaining the superjet fleet is still unresolved. The estimated repair and overhaul costs are reported to fall in the range of 160 to 220 billion rubles, underscoring the significant financial considerations tied to keeping the fleet operational (Kommersant).
In response to these developments, the Air Transport Operators Association submitted a formal request to the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation on April 10, urging government measures to support the Russian aviation industry amid ongoing challenges. The appeal signals a broader concern about aviation resilience and the cost of sustaining a domestic jet fleet in the face of engine supply and repair constraints (Kommersant).