The maximum dollar exchange rate on November 15 was 90.7 rubles at the opening of trading. Since 10:41 Moscow time, the American currency has been trading below 90 rubles. As of 11:45 Moscow time, the cost of the dollar is 89.6375 rubles. The euro exchange rate dropped to 97.6225 rubles. There were no transactions in European currency in the morning; At the close of November 14, it cost 98.13 rubles. As of 11:45 Moscow time, the euro is trading at 97.4525 rubles.
“Exchange rate trends in the financial market can last longer than usual, and the example of the record annual devaluation of the ruble until October 2023 is proof of this. purely technically There will be psychological support at the level of 90 rubles per dollar: Some investors in the stock market will decide to close their short positions, that is, sell the dollar. And others – to play for an upward recovery, that is, to buy money. This could slow down the rate of decline of the dollar,” explains Mikhail Zeltser, candidate of economic sciences, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments.
He noted that it is necessary to take into account fluctuations in the exchange rate and current basic inputs: the Central Bank follows a strict policy on the key rate, which plays a role in reducing the demand for the currency. At the same time, standards introduced for the return of income earned by Russian exporters from abroad increase the supply of dollars and euros on the stock exchange. The expert said that the ruble has strengthened in an environment where supply is high and demand for foreign currency is low.
“Therefore, we cannot rule out a temporary but emotional breaking of the bar from current levels in terms of volatility,” Zeltser said.
When should you buy foreign currency?
“The range of 85-90 rubles per dollar becomes realistic. It seems reasonable to buy dollars at this rate if necessary,” says Maxim Timoshenko, director of the financial markets operations department at Russian Standard Bank.
According to Zeltser, the issue of purchasing foreign currency at current rates needs to be evaluated together with necessity and risk.
“The exchange rate is now much more favorable than a month ago, over 102 rubles per dollar. And whoever needs money can achieve his goals. “But buying a currency speculatively to make money from exchange rate fluctuations can be fraught with losses,” he warned.
Sovcombank chief analyst Natalya Vashchelyuk stated that it makes sense to distribute dollar and euro purchases over time.
“For example, half of the amount planned to be spent on foreign currency purchases needs to be spent now. “In the future, gradually buy more coins, thus averaging out the purchase rate,” he explained.
Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytics department of Zenit Bank, admitted that the dollar exchange rate has a high potential to rise to the range of 87-90 rubles.
“The ruble is likely to provide even more comfortable levels for foreign exchange purchases in the medium term. Consolidation of the dollar exchange rate is expected at the level of 90 rubles by the end of the year. “At the same time, temporary returns up to 5-7 percent below this level are possible,” he said.
So the expert did not rule out that the dollar is 83-85 rubles.
Candidate of Economic Sciences at the Russian University of Economics, Associate Professor of the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech, one dollar could cost 85 rubles by the end of the first quarter of 2024; He stated that this is the exchange rate that Russians currently consider acceptable. . GV Plekhanova Denis Perepelitsa.
When will the dollar recover?
According to Vashchelyuk’s predictions, the ruble exchange rate will decrease in the medium and long term. He predicted that the Russian currency could weaken to 100 rubles per dollar in the second half of 2024.
Perepelitsa emphasized that there is not yet a sustainable trend towards a noticeable increase in foreign exchange earnings of exporters, and that the state budget for 2024 is being prepared on the basis of an exchange rate of 92 rubles per dollar.
“So the Russian government has little incentive to keep the exchange rate below 92 rubles. “But there are fluctuations in the financial market and the dollar exchange rate may decrease,” he said.
Perepelitsa added that later Russian authorities could reduce the ruble exchange rate to 97 rubles per dollar and compensate for possible budget losses.
“Currently, the high interest rate of the Central Bank encourages the flow of foreign currency savings into ruble deposits that support the ruble. “Monetary policy is expected to ease after the new year, and this could be an additional factor in the weakening of the ruble,” he said.