Coordinated actions of Russian authorities are able to keep the dollar exchange rate in the range of 85-90 rubles for a long time. This opinion was expressed by Associate Professor of the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at the Russian University of Economics in an interview with socialbites.ca. GV Plekhanova Denis Perepelitsa.
“Most analysts agree that this rate will drop to 85 rubles per dollar, but stock speculators may drop it even further, up to 75 rubles. The volatility of the ruble is associated with the instability in world oil and gas prices. But coordinated actions of monetary authorities (expert means Central Bank of the Russian Federation – socialbites.ca) can keep the dollar in the 85-90 corridor for quite a long time,” said the economist.
According to him, the increase in dollar and euro exchange rates in the summer was due to the increase in capital outflow, the decrease in the income of exporters and, accordingly, the decrease in their sales.
Perepelitsa added that the widespread public reaction prompted the government to take additional measures to stabilize and strengthen the ruble exchange rate. While an agreement was reached with exporters on the regular sale of a portion of export revenues, efforts were also carried out to strengthen control over capital outflow.
A year and a half ago in the spring, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decided that it was impossible to transfer money abroad from the accounts of residents of Russia – these are legal entities and individuals. Later, there was a gradual relaxation. The volume of permitted transfers gradually increased to $1 million.
Capital outflow from the Russian Federation in 2022 amounted to $243 billion or 13.5% of GDP; This was largely due to the change in the model of financing foreign trade processes and the transfer of money by individuals to deposits in foreign banks. It was previously announced by analysts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASP). For comparison, in the first quarter of 2023, this figure dropped 3.7 times to just $21 billion annually.
On Tuesday, the dollar fell below 93 rubles and the euro fell below 103 rubles on the Moscow Stock Exchange.
Previously “socialbites.ca” explained Sharp strengthening of the ruble exchange rate.