The Central Bank of the Russian Federation may increase the policy rate by 1.5 points to 9.5-10% annually at the extraordinary board meeting to be held on 15 August. Such an estimate was given to socialbites.ca by Vasily Karpunin, head of the information and analytical content department of BCS World of Investments.
“Obviously, the regulator plans to raise the key rate. In the current situation, it is necessary to cool the import demand and put pressure on lending. This, among other things, could help stop the ripple of the ruble’s weakening. Even before the announcement of the extraordinary meeting, many experts tended to increase by 1 percentage point. Assessing the current situation and the inevitability of an increase in September, the regulator may decide to raise the rate in advance, without waiting for the next one. meeting, which will be in just one month. We expect the Central Bank to increase the policy rate by 1.5 points,” Karpunin said.
The expert added that announcing the meeting tomorrow instead of making a decision on the same day may be an indication that the Central Bank wants to provide clear and detailed information to the market about its decision.
The expert does not expect a stronger increase in the key rate on Tuesday. Karpunin announced that the Central Bank could take a break for a month, assess the situation, and increase interest rates again on September 15, if necessary. He stated that there is no need for an excessive rate increase as there are no financial stability risks as in February 2022 (the key rate was later increased to 20%).
“Given the rise in oil prices, the growth in foreign exchange inflows with exporters lagging, the tightening in monetary policy and the refusal to buy foreign currency under the budget rule, the dollar could easily bounce back against the ruble. to 90-95 rubles per dollar in the coming months,” he said.
The dollar rose above 100 rubles at auction on Monday, according to the Moscow Stock Exchange.
Formerly socialbites.ca saidhow the key ratio affects the life of Russians.