The latest outlook for Russia’s economy indicates that year-end GDP growth is expected to sit between 1.5% and 2.5%. This assessment was shared by Alexei Zabotkin, the deputy chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, during remarks reported by TASS. The cadenced pace of activity suggests that the economy is moving closer to the upper boundary of the central bank’s forecast range, and officials are preparing to refresh projections as new statistics become available.
On inflation, the central bank’s current view points to a rate hovering around 5% to 6.5%. This interval marks the upper end of the bank’s prior forecast for price growth, underscoring the challenges that monetary policy will face in steering inflation toward target levels while supporting growth momentum.
In late 2022, analysts at Barclays, the British investment bank, adjusted their projections for Russia’s growth trajectory for the 2023 period. The updated forecast lifted the 2023 GDP growth expectation to 1.7%, up from the previous estimate of 0.7%, reflecting changing assumptions about domestic demand, energy pricing, and external conditions that shape the Russian economy.
Earlier, Anton Siluanov, the chief of the Russian Ministry of Finance, signaled that GDP growth for the current year was not anticipated to fall below a modest threshold, projecting at least a 2% expansion by year’s end. The ministry’s refreshed outlook for socio economic development positioned 2023 GDP growth at about 1.2%, with a projection of 2% for 2024, signaling a modest but steady improvement in the trajectory of output over the near term.
In a broader policy vein, remarks attributed to Vladimir Putin have highlighted a focus on reducing the budget deficit, a theme that has threaded through fiscal policy discussions as the economy navigates volatility in domestic and international conditions. These fiscal and monetary signals together sketch a picture of an economy seeking balance between sustaining growth and maintaining macroeconomic stability, a concern shared by policymakers and markets alike across the United States and Canada as well as within other major economies.