Frets and “Chinese” expensive? Za Rulem experts’ predictions for 2023

On New Year’s Eve, you want something positive – even if it’s a little bit of self-deception. But I’m a realist. And the future reality is this:

1. Throughout 2023, we will be living in a car shortage – and a shortage of affordable cars in the first place. A shortage in the market is always filled at a higher price. So cars that cost a million and a half years ago are still being sold to us for three. This applies to all manufacturers. Business, nothing personal.

2. Follows from the first. The market remains empty in the price range of one million to two million: there will be cheap Grants and Niva at a price of “about a million”, and everything else will be more expensive than two million – including all Chinese cars. True, there is some hope – for Largus, which will go into production in the fall. To the renewed Vesta NG, which we will soon see and which will be sold much cheaper than two million rubles. And also – on some Chinese cars, which are beginning to be assembled at Avtotor.

3. During the first quarter, stocks from previous official deliveries and official Russian production will be definitely sold out. Until now, there are remnants of a meager choice – Renault, Nissan, Toyota, Kia, Hyundai and others. It is hoped that almost all of these machines will keep the factory warranty with more or less transparent support and availability – you can buy if you are interested.

4. During the year, Chinese manufacturers will occupy about 40% of the market. Approximately the same amount remains with AVTOVAZ. The remaining 20% ​​is other Russian production (and here again mainly Chinese cars in the original, not counting UAZs) and alternative imports, which many call parallel imports. Everything and from all possible directions is towed in small batches. But this channel will also mainly broadcast mid-range or expensive cars – of course without warranty, with problematic design and other delights.

5. Prices will not fall – there is no point in waiting for miracles. In a favorable scenario, new car prices will remain at December 2022 levels. With a pessimistic rise during the year by 5-10%. Loans are not cheap either. Customs duties on new and used cars will remain at current levels. All hopes are focused on the continuation of state subsidy programs for buyers of new Russian-made cars.

6. The market will continue to be flooded with spare parts of very different levels (price), geography (production) and quality (there will be more counterfeits). Prices for consumables remain at the same level, prices for specific spare parts (control units, gearboxes, complex headlights, turbines) remain the same or slightly increase.

7. The overall new car market will be only slightly above 2022 levels. Minimum – 600 thousand cars, maximum – 850 thousand. If we remember that the Russians bought almost 1.7 million cars in 2021, we get a deficit of about a million cars. With all its consequences.

But there is another positive moment. We seem to have sunk to the bottom of the market. There’s no room downstairs. So there is a chance to push off and go up. The main thing is not to get stuck in this muddy bottom. For this it is not a sin to drink champagne.

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Nikita Gudkov, deputy editor of Za Rulem magazine

Nikita Gudkov, deputy editor of Za Rulem magazine

All predictions are now a thankless task. Very cautiously, I assume that the new car market in 2023 will remain at the level of 2022, plus or minus 10-15%. The used car market will not change substantially.

But there are too many unpredictable factors. Moreover, there are those who “experts” for some reason do not pay attention at all. When discussing Muscovites, Evolutes, new “Chinese” and a variety of cars imported through gray-parallel channels, they forget about the product itself. About the car.

When making a purchase decision, a motorist does not only look at the price or warranty, but primarily at the car itself. Based on my personal experience and my personal “idea of ​​beauty”. To sell thousands or tens of thousands of units at once with a new or little-known brand, these must be exceptionally beautiful and perfect cars.

I doubt that after the all-wheel drive Duster or Captur, deeply adapted to Russia, with proven reliability and a wide range of versions, 40 thousand people will immediately start buying a petrol Moskvich.

Or that the Geely Emgrand 7 sedan, which will be delivered from Belarus, will immediately become a replacement for the ‘standard’ Solaris, Rio and Polo with Rapid.

And to transfer people, “break-in” in BMWs or Land Cruisers, to Iksids and Tanks, it doesn’t take years – decades. No matter how good all the listed cars are, the feel of the “era to 2022” cars should be forgotten.

The range of new cars is likely to become very broad in 2023. But it will be extremely difficult to force a real mass consumer (namely mass!) to buy something unusual or not to his liking. Unless according to the principle “they don’t take it, we turn off the gas”. I hope it doesn’t come to that.

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I look at 2023 with reasonable optimism, if only because last year was perhaps the most difficult of this century. Also for the car industry, and for us, motorists.

The drop in new car sales at the end of the year was more than 50%. Everything is logical – prices are rising, incomes are falling. However, positive trends emerged at the end of the year – sales picked up slightly.

And in 2023, the number of new cars sold must grow (at least!) by 10%. There will be more cars on the market and prices will fall.

Of course, they will not return to pre-crisis levels. But there will certainly be fewer dealer marks. On the contrary, sellers will lure you with discounts and gifts.

The shortage of cars will be reduced due to the growth of domestic production – domestic brands (VAZ, UAZ) will gradually increase volumes. The enterprises of the former foreign brands will start (and have already started) producing new models.

Moskvich plans to produce 50,000 cars this year. The factory should start operating in the second half of 2023 Nissan, where they will start producing Chinese models under the Lada brand. Around the same time, the Sollers plant in Vladivostok should come to life, where they will produce not only commercial, but also passenger models.

Add momentum and officially allowed parallel imports. It not only diversifies the lean model range, but also brings about 100,000 additional cars to our market. True, much will depend on the exchange rate of the ruble.

In addition to the “Chinese”, Iranian cars will be brought to us: Iran Khodro and SAIPA. These models are designed to revive the budget car segment. It is possible that, in order to guarantee competitive prices, they organize the assembly of some models in a “vacated” car factory (for example Toyota).

The shortage of new cars is partly compensated by resale. Approximately doubled compared to 2001 (judging by the situation will continue to grow) the number of deliveries of right-hand drive cars to us. Will be more active and “left-handed” models from Korea, Europe, America.

So we won’t be without cars in the new year. In addition, the choice of models will become richer. And prices – if they do not fall (although there are trends), then they certainly will not grow much – it’s time to know the measure.

And if so, then right after health and happiness I want to wish everyone financial well-being. To have enough money, also for a car.

May the coming 2023 bring us all more goodness and peace. Good luck on the road and in life!

Happy New Year!