European luxury brands faced a steep downturn in Russia, where the Association of European Businesses reports a near halt in sales for several makers. British Jaguar delivered only five cars per month through July 2021, a drop of 94 percent. Swedish Volvo moved 16 units, down 97 percent. Porsche registered 18 sales, also down 97 percent.
Infiniti and Land Rover struggled as well, each moving just 21 cars in a month. Lexus, a foreign label, posted 19 sales, Opel 45, and Jeep 60. According to the Porsche official site, stock levels across Russia include 34 Cayenne, 11 Macan, 8 Panamera, 7 911, 13 Taycan electric cars, and a single Cayman and Boxster at various dealers.
Company spokespeople reiterated that the brands remain officially present with a network of dealers, but ongoing sales rely entirely on existing inventory. “Delivery of new cars still stalls. As for the dealer network, it hasn’t changed much at this stage,” stated Jaguar Land Rover’s Russian office to Gazeta.ru.
The Honda Russia office indicated that unsold dealer stock would cover operations through 2022, noting July sales of 13 vehicles. Subaru, however, confirmed it would continue to sell, service, and honor warranties for current owners. The brand reported 46 sales in July, representing an 87 percent decline from the previous year, and announced that no new car deliveries were available at this time.
Other major automakers reported only a handful of sales in the prior month and did not respond to inquiries about stock levels or any potential shutdown plans. Large dealership groups noted that the inventories of brands that have paused deliveries could last two to four months, and the overall dealership footprint is likely to shrink.
One analyst warned that if importers do not adjust their positions by November, many brands could run out of stock by year-end. Avtodom CEO Andrey Olkhovsky explained that official supply channels may be reduced to zero, though new car availability might persist through alternative channels. By August, Avtodom managed to avoid stock depletion by sourcing vehicles from regional dealers amid weak demand and anticipated reductions in brand space to streamline management.
Avilon Automobile Group’s Deputy General Manager for New Car Sales, Alexei Starikov, noted a pivot toward brands that remain available in Russia. He projected that dealers would hold enough inventory for roughly two to four months of trading. If current conditions persist, the decline in brand activity could sustain through the coming months, potentially averaging around 80 percent. Avilon has also expanded with six new Chinese brands in the first half of 2022, signaling a shift in consumer appetite toward Exeed, Chery, Faw, Changan, Haval, and Geely models, driven by demand in the market.
who will we say goodbye to
Industry consultant Sergey Burgazliev believes that the first brands to pull back will be those without their own manufacturing facilities or significant assets in Russia. He pointed to premium players such as Lexus, Infiniti, Jaguar, Land Rover, and Volvo as primary candidates to reduce operations, with the sense that many will wind down while some continue servicing existing customers.
He predicted that Porsche, Jaguar, Land Rover, and Volvo could exit the market entirely, while Infiniti might not follow the same path and Toyota could reassess its position. These insights came in a detailed interview with socialbites.ca. Analysts suggest Stellantis, which owns Peugeot, Citroen, Jeep, Fiat, and Opel, could maintain a presence to defend its local factory assets.
Sergey Udalov, managing director of Avtostat, said premium brands like Mercedes-Benz and BMW face severe challenges under current sanctions and may struggle to sustain operations. Similarly, brands including Lexus, Infiniti, Jaguar, Land Rover, and Porsche cannot operate at full capacity in Russia right now. While some have not publicly announced withdrawal, they continue to support existing customers, Udalov noted. Until geopolitical conditions shift, active operations are unlikely to recover quickly, he added.
Udalov highlighted that July’s sales, with declines exceeding 90 percent for several brands, indicate stock depletion and the unreliability of large volumes of parallel imports from neighboring nations due to limited quotas and potential sanctions exposure for the importing countries. The market remains uncertain as brands balance sanctions, consumer demand, and the viability of their Russia-based networks in the months ahead.