The supply situation for components remains fragile, which means forecasts stay cautious. Renault’s Moscow vehicle assembly facility resumed activity on March 21 after a period of interruption, a move confirmed to TASS. This recovery occurs against a backdrop of ongoing volatility in global supply chains shaped by geopolitical tensions and shifting sanction regimes, as managers weigh the risks of disruption to critical parts, chassis components, and electronics that power modern vehicles. In this environment, the company has stressed that visibility is limited and plans can only be provisional, reflecting both external pressures and the need to preserve production momentum for key markets while simultaneously navigating the complexities of regional operations and supplier relationships.
Earlier in February, Renault’s chief executive Luca de Meo indicated in an interview with the Financial Times that the firm’s Russian factories could encounter new supply hurdles tied to the evolving situation surrounding Ukraine. The remarks underscored the dependence of production lines on stable imports of parts and the potential adjustments required in sourcing strategies, supplier diversification, and inventory management. Even as the global auto industry wrestles with shortages of microchips, cables, and other essential items, Renault has to assess how regional constraints may affect throughput, lead times, and the ability to meet demand in both domestic and regional markets, including neighboring economies with growing automotive ecosystems.
Earlier still, Renault halted operations at its Moscow car assembly plant toward the end of February due to what officials described as a forced reconfiguration of existing supply chains. The pause illustrates how external shocks can compel manufacturers to rework procurement routes, pause line setups, or reallocate production to shift capacities toward components that remain accessible. The decision also highlights the delicate balance between maintaining manufacturing continuity and protecting the broader network of facilities that depend on synchronized flows of parts, subassemblies, and finished vehicles across borders and time zones. In such conditions, temporary shutdowns are sometimes the most prudent response to prevent longer disruptions and to preserve equipment readiness for a quicker restart when supply conditions improve.
Unlike a number of other foreign car groups that exited the market or reduced exposure through formal political disengagement, Renault’s approach in Russia has been characterized by a measured persistence. The absence of a public political demarche in major media coverage suggests a deliberate strategy to retain a foothold in the country while avoiding forced withdrawal that could trigger nationalization of assets tied to the joint venture. AVTOVAZ, the domestic auto giant partially owned by Renault, remains a central piece of this strategy. With Renault controlling a sizable stake, the status of AVTOVAZ is intertwined with Renault’s broader regional ambitions and risk management calculus. For Renault, a complete exit would entail substantial costs and stranded investments, especially given the scale of the network that includes plants, supplier relationships, and distribution channels already established in Russia. The two-thirds ownership of AVTOVAZ and the connected Dacia-Lada structure play a pivotal role in Renault’s blueprint for a coordinated regional presence, where both brands participate in shared platforms and product families that help leverage synergies across markets. In this context, Renault’s decision to stay is tied not only to maintaining continuity of supply but also to preserving the strategic alignment of its product portfolio with the needs of a broad customer base in Russia and neighboring markets. The interplay between the Dacia-Lada arrangements and Renault’s broader strategy underscores how interconnected components—ranging from vehicle architectures to local manufacturing capabilities—contribute to a cohesive plan that seeks to sustain manufacturing viability even under challenging conditions.