Prices on cars could drop if the system for parallel imports is properly tuned. This insight comes from experts at Otkritie Avto, the automotive sector arm of Otkritie Bank, who spoke to TASS about the potential market impact.
Analysts note that the market showed signs of pressure in the early days of May. Official data from the Association of European Businesses (AEB) indicate that only 32.7 thousand cars were sold in April, a figure that marks a dramatic 78.5% decline compared with the same month last year. The sharp drop underscores how fragile demand can be when traditional supply chains are constrained and exchange rate volatility adds a layer of risk for buyers and dealers alike.
Looking ahead, the key to a gradual revival lies in streamlining the parallel import mechanism. If car dealers can secure the necessary financing for exchange, customs duties, transportation, and currency risk hedging during the conversion process, a new influx of foreign-brand vehicles could begin to appear in the market. In the next four to five months, this could help ease price pressures not only on premium models but also on mass-market cars, helping to rebalance supply and demand in a market that has seen prices surge under restricted import channels. This outlook reflects cautious optimism among industry observers and points to a potential stabilization in consumer pricing as parallel imports expand. Source: TASS
Ahead of the May holidays, the Ministry of Industry and Trade released a list of goods permitted for parallel imports. The list covers a range of auto parts and spare parts and includes vehicles from a broad set of brands such as GM, Chevrolet, Mitsubishi, Renault, Tesla, Honda, Nissan, Land Rover, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volkswagen, Skoda, Audi, Toyota, Lexus, Suzuki, Volvo, and others. This policy, while expanding access to vehicles and components, also signals a shift in how import channels may operate in the near term. It is worth noting that these changes could produce ripple effects throughout the dealership network, potentially altering competitive dynamics and market expectations for both foreign and domestic assemblers. Source: TASS
Nevertheless, a broader rise in gray imports could pressure the business models of certain brands, including those that are locally produced or supported in Russia. If parallel imports gain significant traction, official distributors might be compelled to lower prices and accept tighter profit margins in order to maintain market share and preserve brand presence. The economic calculus for authorized dealers would have to adapt to a more competitive landscape, where price elasticity and consumer access shape strategy. Source: TASS
Importantly, products obtained through the parallel-import channel are not reflected in the official sales statistics maintained by foreign-brand distributors. While vehicle registrations processed by traffic authorities provide some data, access to these records remains limited, and they do not offer a complete picture of the market’s size or structure. This discrepancy underscores the challenges faced by policymakers, analysts, and industry participants as they attempt to gauge true demand and the health of the automotive sector. Source: TASS