Following the withdrawal of Western brands, Russia’s car market has largely emptied and is now effectively split between AvtoVAZ and Chinese automakers. An automotive analyst notes that this shift is reshaping pricing dynamics and brand positioning across the country, with implications for consumers and manufacturers alike.
In practical terms, the analyst argues, there is little room to expect a rapid drop in prices for domestic models in the near term. The market has reorganized around two major blocks: Russian-made vehicles and imports from China, which now occupy distinct segments in terms of pricing and features. This reconfiguration translates into a market where the traditional, wide-ranging competition seen before the disruptions of the pandemic has narrowed significantly.
Specifically, the market share picture shows that domestic models could account for roughly 30-40 percent of passenger car sales in Russia, with Chinese brands claiming the balance. This division reflects not only price strategy but also consumer preferences that have evolved amid ongoing supply constraints and shifting brand perceptions. The current offers in the market show price gaps that are notably wider than those seen before the Covid era, underscoring a lack of direct, head-to-head competition between the two major groups.
It is also noted that the two groups operate in somewhat different price bands, reducing the intensity of direct price competition. The most expensive model from a Russian marque is still priced below the cheapest Chinese option in many cases, reinforcing the perception of a bifurcated market rather than a single, uniform pricing landscape.
Industry observers highlight another trend: the structure of the dealer network and consumer demand. Data from late spring point to a substantial contraction in new-car sales, with estimates suggesting the market could fall from previous expectations by a wide margin. Analysts warn that dealer networks may not reach prior volumes, even as they adapt to the new mix of brands and models. This evolving landscape signals a period of recalibration for both manufacturers and retail networks as they navigate supply dynamics, consumer confidence, and shifting import policies.