Analysts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have updated their outlook for Russia, projecting a contraction in GDP that modestly deepens through the current year and continues into 2024. The latest figures indicate a decline of about 1.5% in GDP volume by year’s end, followed by a further fall of roughly 0.4% as the next year closes. The near-term trajectory assumes weaker momentum observed in March, with a projected annual decrease of around 2.1% for the current year and an additional 0.5% in 2024. These revisions reflect the OECD’s current assessment of the Russian economy in the context of global conditions and domestic developments.
Earlier estimates from the OECD, shared in November, painted a more pessimistic picture. At that time, the staff anticipated a sharper drop in Russia’s GDP for 2023 of about 5.6%, yet a relatively mild contraction of around 0.2% was foreseen for 2024. The shift in these projections underscores how evolving analytics, energy dynamics, and external pressures can alter the expected growth path over a multi-year horizon.
In the broader international context, the OECD described world growth as moderating, with expectations for global expansion of about 2.7% in the current year after a 3.3% rise in 2022. The forecast also suggested a modest rebound to around 2.9% in the following year, highlighting that the pace of global economic activity would remain constrained by a mix of supply bottlenecks, inflation dynamics, and policy responses across major economies.
Meanwhile, data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as cited by the regional agency RIA Novosti, indicate that Russia’s GDP per capita at the end of 2022 stood at roughly $15.44 thousand. This figure comes close to the record level reached in 2013, when per capita GDP was about $15.93 thousand, signaling that household living standards had at times tracked historical highs even amid cyclic downturns and external pressures.