Over the next three to four years, sales of new cars with manual transmissions in Russia are expected to decline to a floor that signals a clear shift away from this drivetrain. This outlook comes from dealer groups Avtodom and AvtoSpetsTsentr, as reported by Izvestia and supported by industry observers.
Analysts note that Russia is aligning with a global move away from manual transmissions. In 2022, only about 34% of new cars in European markets were equipped with manual gearboxes, while the domestic market shows a similar trend with roughly 30–35% of new vehicles offering manuals. The trajectory suggests continued narrowing of manual transmission availability in the coming years.
One key driver of this trend is the tightening of environmental standards. Manual transmissions can struggle to meet the latest emissions requirements, whereas automatic and dual‑clutch systems offer more consistent control over engine load and emissions. As technology progresses and automatics become more prevalent, the share of cars featuring manual gearboxes is expected to shrink further.
Experts also indicate that manual transmissions will still be found in specific segments within Russia. Economical compact cars, sport utility vehicles, and commercial vehicles are likely to retain manual options longer, particularly where cost considerations and rugged operating conditions influence buyer choices.
Earlier discussions about the Russian market have highlighted the impact of external factors on vehicle types, including how geographic realities and climate can affect performance. Long distances between cities and harsh winter conditions can influence consumer perceptions of electric and alternative drivetrain viability in a vast nation, shaping demand and technology adoption in nuanced ways.
As the market evolves, questions remain about how shifts in drivetrain preferences will interact with price sensitivity, fleet procurement policies, and the overall pace of automotive modernization across Russia. Stakeholders continue to monitor these dynamics as manufacturers adapt their lineups to meet evolving regulatory and consumer needs.