Grab the calculator. In Goal, the focus is on what Colombian teams loaned to other clubs must do to reach the semi finals.
The 2023 BetPlay League, first half of the year, has reached the final date of the all-against-all phase. That stage will decide which eight teams advance to the home-run rounds that crown the champion in the semifinals.
The champions assess how many points they must secure against the semi-finalists, with the calendar ticking down and three more points up for grabs to reach that target.
Considering how the season has unfolded, the threshold to reach the home runs was around 29 points, plus a favorable goal difference; depending on certain results, the margin could dip to 27 points.
In this analysis, Goal reviews each team’s calculations to understand the rankings.
CLASSIFIED
The teams that had already secured spots earlier in the process were Millonarios, Águilas Doradas, Atlético Nacional, América de Cali, and Alianza Petrolera. Three slots remained for seven teams still able to mathematically qualify for the next phase.
Among these, the date 20 matches hold particular weight for Embajadores, Dorados, and Verdolagas as they fight to finish first or second in their groups to command Group A or Group B in the Quadrangulares.
DO THE ACCOUNT
Boyacá Chicó / 6th / 29 points / +6 GD: a win as a visitor or a draw against Deportivo Cali would push them onto the other side. If not, they must hope Santa Fe, Medellín, or Pasto do not win.
Santa Fe / 7th / 26 points / +6 GD: a win against Once Caldas at Palogrande secures a Quadrangular spot. A draw makes a favorable outcome possible only if at least three of Medellín, Pasto, Equidad, and Junior lose. A loss would require several unfavorable results to occur among the pursuers.
Medellín / 8th / 26 points / +1 GD: a victory at Atanasio against Unión takes them through on goal difference, depending on Pasto’s results. A draw is workable only if Pasto, Equidad, or Junior fail to win. A defeat makes the same requirement apply to their challengers.
Grass / 9th / 26 Points / 0 GD: they must beat Envigado at home and seek a win to boost GD, hoping Santa Fe or Medellín do not win. In a tie, they would rely on results from Cardenales and Mighty, and possibly Equidad and Junior. A loss would leave room for DIM and someone else to surge on goal difference.
Equity / 10th / 25 points / +3 GD: they must beat Millonarios in El Campín to force at least two defeats among Santa Fe, Medellín, and Pasto. A draw only works if Medellín and Pasto lose and Junior draws or loses.
Junior / 11th / 25 points / -2 GD: besides beating Huila in Neiva, a draw or upset from at least three of Santa Fe, Medellín, Pasto, and Equity is required. A draw would only help with substantial losses by the main rivals.
Sport Tolima, with only a 0.1% chance, would need a true miracle: beating Nacional while DIM would have to lose to Unión, Pasto losing to Envigado, Equidad drawing or losing to Millonarios, and Junior drawing or losing, all while considering goal difference in each match.
DELETED
The defending champions Deportivo Pereira, along with Deportivo Cali, Envigado, Jaguares, Union Magdalena, Huila, Bucaramanga, and Once Caldas, were eliminated from the race.
CHANCE OF QUALIFICATION
Using Matics Football’s calculations, here are each team’s chances of qualifying for the home-run phase and the threshold points they need.
The most likely point tallies for the league standings at eight games remaining are:
▪️ 29 points, 47.2% ▪️ 27 points, 24.9% ▪️ 28 points, 19.6% ▪️ 26 points, 8.3%
Source: Goal
Source: Goal