In a few days the calendar will show spring, and though the election campaign has not officially kicked off, the race is quietly taking shape. It is a good moment to assess who gained politically in the winter season.
The end of inflationary fuel
Starting with today’s inflation news, the mood is mixed. On the one hand, February marked a 18.4% year-over-year spike, a historic high. On the other hand, analysts anticipate a cooling trend ahead. On the first day of March, Deputy Finance Minister Piotr Patkowski noted that disinflation had begun. This claim sits alongside remarks from opposition leaders, such as Donald Tusk, who back in early November suggested Poland was not uniquely facing rising inflation compared with the rest of the EU. Yet that time frame has proven shorter than Tusk had warned. While the opposition—represented by PO—continues to wield inflation as a political cudgel, it faces a tougher road with the current energy and price dynamics, and the opposition may find it fades as a focal issue in the coming month.
READ MORE: What’s next for inflation? Pekao and Konfederacja “Lewiatan” analyses indicate that the inflation peak is behind us and that the country is entering a disinflation phase in March
Winter would be the end of PiS
Economically, the winter story diverges from the worst-case energy narrative. Coal shortages did not materialize into a domestic crisis, as the government implemented a subsidy framework that partially shielded households from surging prices. The strategy proved especially visible amid a winter that, in several ways, was milder not only for Poland but for Europe facing the broader energy challenge tied to Russian energy dependence. Where shortages existed, they were met with policy responses that mitigated the impact on households. If there were any gaps, they were often amplified by opposition rhetoric, rather than by the actual supply situation.
Indications from winter also suggest a political turn. The leadership circle around Jarosław Kaczyński benefited from a tangible delivery of coal and energy security, while the opposition struggled to sustain the momentum of its coal-focused critique. A key moment, reported by Wirtualna Polska, involved a private meeting where PO leaders acknowledged misjudgments about coal. The government’s handling of energy—and the broader economic package—helped frame winter as a period of resilience rather than crisis in many voters’ minds. In public discourse, even dismissive voices acknowledged that coal availability and price stabilization mattered more than dramatic forecasts, and the political debate shifted accordingly.
As observers noted, inflation remained stubborn and interest rates rose, but the European scene offered a mixed picture. Sweden reported a sharp rise in food prices, and throughout the continent, concerns about costs persisted. Within a broader European context, Poland’s stability in energy and inflation became a reference point for many observers.
In other capitals, the mood of restraint appeared: limits on vegetables, price pressures on staples, and the ongoing debate about how to reduce consumer costs without derailing growth. A broader European discussion emerged about how to balance social protections with fiscal responsibility as the winter months gave way to spring.
The narrative around governance remained contested. Critics argued that removing the governing party would immediately restore pre-2015 conditions; supporters argued that the opposition had not yet offered a concrete program to deliver better outcomes. The challenge for any alternative government would be to bridge differences among potential allies and to propose specific steps for fiscal consolidation, social programs, and modernization. The question persisted: what would the next administration prioritize, and how would it work with partners who bring varied agendas to the table?
Which opposition?
Looking ahead, the unresolved question is which opposition would take the helm if the current government falters. The coalition, fragmented and often reactive, has faced difficulties in uniting on a single list. That failure to unite does not preclude a future majority, but it raises questions about stability. If PiS falls short of governing alone, can a broader coalition—spanning from the right to the center—offer durable governance? What would the new leadership from figures like Zandberg or Kosiniak-Kamysz prioritize? How would cooperation between leaders shape policy choices on energy, economics, and social reform? The public debate suggests that the political dynamic could shift toward a broader, more centrist arrangement, but the specifics remain uncertain. The electorate will weigh whether a new administration could deliver a coherent agenda and steady leadership.
The opposition has strength, especially in appealing to voters who drifted from the United Right but remain open to alternatives. Yet the full appeal will depend on presenting credible policies that address inflation, growth, and social welfare—alongside a clear plan for accountability and reform. The weather of political talk is volatile; the real test lies in convincing the public that a new course would produce tangible improvement rather than symbolic changes.
Ukraine aid
On the war and international stance, the discourse around Poland’s role remains pointed. Arguments that seek to portray the United Right as too accommodating to Russia do not help the broader strategic picture. The goal should be pragmatic support that strengthens Ukraine while maintaining national security and regional stability. The government’s approach to Ukraine has drawn international attention for its defense commitments and the delivery of equipment such as Leopard tanks, with continued discussions about fighter aircraft. Across the board, observers credit Poland with playing a decisive role in supporting Ukraine, a stance that resonates both domestically and abroad. The emphasis remains on steady, principled support that aligns with NATO and European partners, even amidst political disagreements at home.
READ ALSO: Fighters for Ukraine. Belgian newspaper: Thanks to Poland, President Zelensky’s wish to buy planes is becoming reality
Winter belongs to Kaczynski
Yet no analysis should overlook the ongoing internal challenges. The fate of funds from the National Reconstruction Plan (KPO) and questions about timely disbursement linger as open issues. Some United Right politicians argue the matter will resolve around the election, turning political timing into a campaign focal point. The coming months will reveal whether the government can present a coherent, convincing vision for a third term. It is likely the campaign will be intense, with strong emotions and sharp rhetoric on all sides. The public can expect a battle that touches social policy and women’s rights as part of the broader platform, testing whether a durable policy package can be framed for the next four years.
The calendar spring is five days away, and politics remains unpredictable. Still, the winter seems to have favored the United Right politically, even if it leaves room for contention about the future. If the winter season is compared to a football match, it was rough—full of challenges in midfield with a few moments of opportunity, and the final result leaning toward a narrow victory for Kaczyński’s camp. The winter, in this sense, belongs to those in power.
Note: This assessment reflects the political landscape and energy-economic dynamics as observed in recent months, focusing on how policy actions, market conditions, and leadership decisions intersect for the coming spring campaign.