The carbon question looms large: which fossil fuels are most harmful, how many remain in use today, and how quickly they must be phased out to protect the planet? The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global energy consumption hit a record high this year, coinciding with the hottest year ever recorded. While that peak may already be behind us, the possibility remains that consumption could stabilize or even retreat in the near term as renewable sources like solar and wind continue to grow.
New figures from the IEA indicate that several nations will burn more coal this year than in 2022, which previously held the record for coal use. Meeting global targets to curb warming and avert severe climate impacts hinges on slashing greenhouse gas emissions by roughly half during this decade, a commitment reiterated at COP28. As renewable energy expands, the trajectory for coal could begin to bend downward in 2024, though the pace varies by region and sector.
These projections were issued shortly after the United Nations climate talks in Dubai concluded with a consensus to move away from fossil fuels as a core strategy to limit warming, a milestone highlighted by AFP. The agreement underscored a critical shift in climate diplomacy and policy direction for the coming years.
Asia’s coal demand grows
The IEA notes that coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, will climb by about 1.4 percent to a record 8.5 billion tons in 2023. Gains in China, India, and Indonesia offset declines in Europe and the United States, according to the agency. In China, consumption rose by roughly 220 million tonnes, a 4.9 percent increase, while India and Indonesia posted notable rises of 8 percent and 11 percent, respectively, in 2023.
The IEA also projects a clear downward trend in global coal demand from 2024 onward, driven by the continuous rise of solar and wind power and the broader integration of clean energy technologies. Yet the appetite for coal remains strong in parts of Asia, particularly in China, where a substantial portion of coal use is tied to electricity generation despite ongoing plant construction.
In Europe, coal use has declined sharply, reflecting a broader transition toward cleaner energy and the substitution of coal with renewables. The United States has also seen a sizable drop as industrial activity slows and power generation shifts toward renewable sources. The IEA cautions that while coal use is expected to fall in power generation, it will still be required in heavy industries such as cement production, a nuance noted by AFP.
Paradoxically, strong demand for coal in Indonesia’s mining sector is tied to rapid development and the processing of nickel for electric vehicle batteries. China remains the world’s largest coal consumer, accounting for about half of global coal use, a fact that keeps the energy transition global and complex.
Europe and the renewable energy push
China’s coal use remains substantial for electricity generation, with many new coal-fired projects approved this year. The country has authorized projects totaling 52 gigawatts of new capacity, signaling continued expansion in the near term. However, forecasts anticipate that coal consumption for electricity generation will decrease by about 175 million tonnes to 2.8 billion tonnes in the 2024–26 window, unless extreme weather drives higher demand. In contrast, India is expected to be the main source of coal demand during this period, underscoring regional differences in the energy transition.
Overall, the trajectory points toward a gradual shift away from coal, tempered by regional need in heavy industry and energy-intensive sectors. The international energy landscape remains dynamic, with policy decisions, market forces, and technological advances each playing a part in shaping future consumption patterns.
Note: This overview reflects ongoing assessments from major energy agencies and news sources, synthesized to provide a clear picture of global coal use, regional variations, and the evolving balance between fossil fuels and renewable energy in the effort to curb climate change.