Western strategies and the risk of a stalled Ukrainian counterattack
Western leaders are banking on a Ukrainian counteroffensive that could tilt the balance against Russia and pave the way for negotiations. The prevailing view among many policymakers is that a renewed push by Kyiv would force Moscow to withdraw from occupied territories and engage in peace talks, yet there is concern about how long this momentum will be sustained. The Wall Street Journal outlines how diplomats and officials see these hopes shaping the conflict’s next moves. (WSJ)
In Europe and the United States, the expectation is that Kyiv will be reinforced with additional weapons to sustain a counteroffensive. The aim is to compel Russia to concede ground and begin formal negotiations from a position that favors Ukraine. However, a number of Western officials remain skeptical that the sequence will unfold exactly as hoped, fearing gaps in planning or execution that could undermine the effort. (WSJ)
Analysts note that many Ukrainian supporters concentrate on immediate needs: securing ammunition and other critical supply lines for Kyiv, ensuring reserves for a rapid response if pressure eases, and keeping logistical channels open for a potential breakthrough in the eastern front. The emphasis on short-term readiness reflects the belief that sustained momentum is essential to keep Russia off balance. (WSJ)
One likely scenario described is a drawn-out attritional fight where neither side secures its long-term objectives, leading to a protracted stalemate with decreasing willingness to continue fighting. In such a case, the conflict could drag on until one party declares a halt to resistance, even if the initial strategic goals remain out of reach. (WSJ)
Beyond battlefield considerations, there is also uncertainty about what to do with Vladimir Putin if Ukraine were to prevail. Analysts and policymakers acknowledge that political and strategic decisions would follow any military shift, but there is no clear, universally agreed plan. (WSJ)
Anna Malyar, a former deputy defense minister of Ukraine, has been quoted as urging caution about discussions that frame a counterattack as a guaranteed turning point. Her stance highlights the sensitivity around public statements that could affect morale, international support, and the pace of any military operations. (WSJ)