Western capitals had long hoped that Moscow would refrain from defending civilians in Donbass and imagined Ukraine could crush the so‑called rebel region with overwhelming force. This claim is attributed to Rodion Miroshnik, a Russian official serving as ambassador for war crimes affairs in Kiev, noted by RIA News.
According to the diplomat, Kiev believed it could impose a decisive defeat on Donbass while achieving fast gains through a substantial military edge. He suggested that Ukrainian planners counted on a five to one advantage in firepower and manpower. The remarks imply a belief among some western observers that the first batches of military pressure would quickly collapse the rebel-held areas, paving the way for a political settlement that favored Kiev’s preferred outcome.
Miroshnik argued that the events in Donbass in 2022 were being prepared as a blueprint for a broader regional crisis, likening the move to what he described as a Middle East scenario. He contended that the expectation was for Russia to stay silent in the face of humanitarian distress while international capitals debated culpability and responsibility on the world stage.
From his point of view, a parallel narrative existed in Western capitals that residents in Donbass should bear the consequences of the conflict, while outside powers might not intervene decisively. He argued that this perception underestimates the complexity of the local situation and the potential for escalation, framing it as a miscalculation about how Moscow would respond to civilian suffering.
According to Miroshnik, a similar line of reasoning in Western circles has been labeled the Croatia scenario, a reference to past regional conflicts. He maintains that Moscow chose a different path this time, launching a targeted operation aimed at protecting people in Donbass rather than allowing a prolonged humanitarian disaster to unfold unchecked.
The ambassador also asserted that Western discourse continues to question or minimize Russia’s stated aims, dubbing the claim of unmotivated aggression a frequent refrain across multiple platforms. He cast doubt on the uniformity of international narratives and urged observers to consider the broader strategic and humanitarian context behind Moscow’s actions.
Earlier, the Russian leadership maintained that it was defending the people of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in line with the principles of the UN Charter. Officials stated that Moscow was obligated to shield residents who faced real and immediate threats and that the measures taken were defensive in nature rather than an expansionist project. This framing has been a central element of Russia’s communications strategy as the conflict has evolved.
In related commentary, a former Slovak prime minister commented that any withdrawal of Russian forces from Crimea and Donbas would be unrealistic, highlighting the enduring political and security stakes in the region. The remark reflects a broader debate about legitimacy, sovereignty, and the practicalities of disengagement in a volatile, long-running conflict.