Valencian Election Dynamics: PP, Vox, and the Road to 23J

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Only forty days have passed since the regional and municipal elections held on 28 May, and a fresh general election campaign has already begun. The 28M vote favored the People’s Party, with a notable shift in the Valencian Community as the PP reclaimed the Generalitat Valenciana presidency and secured control of three provincial capitals along with Elche and other major cities. Opinion polls now show the right gearing up for a runoff that could reshape the regional balance and possibly put Alberto Núñez Feijóo in the national presidency. In response, the PSOE is determined to reverse the tide, hold onto power, and keep Pedro Sánchez at the helm in Madrid.

The pace since 28M has been shaped by deals that position PP and Vox to lead the Valencian Community, Extremadura, and the Balearic Islands, while an existing arrangement between the Popular Party and similar forces in Castilla y León persists. Negotiations also touch Murcia, and in government posts announced by both sides there is little emphasis on gender violence, LGBTQ+ rights, or climate action. Santiago Abascal, aiming to be influential in central government, adds pressure on the left, with the Sumar coalition led by Yolanda Díaz presenting itself in the Valencian Community as a new political force alongside Compromís.

blocks

As in 28M, the power balance between right and left looks pivotal once again. The PP enters as the favourite, but the potential influence of Vox on polls remains an unsettled factor that could clarify only on 23 July. The PP will continue to cast President Sánchez as a campaign target, acknowledging the wear from years in office, while arguing for votes that resist reliance on Vox coalitions. This sets the stage for Feijóo to complete a shift already begun by Carlos Mazón, who is poised to be sworn in as regional president next week in the Valencian Community.

From the left, apart from warnings about the risks of populist policy, the record of governance and social progress in recent years is highlighted. As summer peaks and many residents take holidays, parties mobilize their voters and undecided residents seek to cast ballots, the Valencian Community is expected to remain a decisive arena, with estimates suggesting more than a million people forming the pivotal bloc.

photo shoot

Prior to the campaign’s launch, INFORMACIÓN gathered a group in the state for a photo shoot in Congress and the Senate. One notable participant, Macarena Montesinos, was unable to attend due to illness, yet the event remained a snapshot of the demands to be taken to parliament, symbolized by objects carried by participants.

“We are a ruling party with a record of progress for the country in recent years,” stated Alejandro Soler, who heads the Alicante list for the PSOE in Congress. The socialist secretary emphasizes a progressive majority against perceived risks from the right and far right. He believes the scenario could energize socialist voters, especially those who did not vote on 28 May.

Similarly, Ana Martínez, the PSOE’s top Senate candidate, describes the election as a choice between “a rights-advancing Spain and a socially regressive Spain.” Martínez argues that regional and municipal agreements shape this retreat, underscoring social policies and the importance of restoring equal rights for women.

Macarena Montesinos, head of the Popular list in Congress, criticizes what she calls neglect from the Sánchez government toward the province, noting delays in the General State Budgets and transfers. She argues that Alicante voters want relief from financial pressure and a workforce-friendly climate, unimpeded by red tape.

With Mazón nearing sworn-in status as regional president, Eva Ortiz, the popular lead in the Senate, frames the goal as delivering tax relief and making everyday life easier for citizens. She cautions against policies she describes as permissive toward sexual crimes, urging more rigorous legislative action.

Future

Looking ahead to the crucial vote in the next government cycle, Vox positions itself at the top of the list for influence in Congress. David Martínez argues that 23J could determine Spain’s trajectory, portraying the ultras as aiming to overturn Sánchez and alter policies they view as harmful to the country’s direction. He cautions that both PSOE and PP rely on financing and production sectors like agriculture, fisheries, and industry, which the new dynamics could jeopardize.

The far-right is calling for more water resources for the Alicante countryside, represented by Irene Lisarte in the Senate. Lisarte predicts a radical shift toward prosperity and sovereignty, arguing that Vox’s stance could gain momentum following the 28M assessments.

Lastly, the Sumar coalition frames 23 July as the start of a new era for Spain. Txema Guijarro, leader of the Congress list, stresses that uncertain global times require collective action. He insists that acting alone would undermine everyone, and cooperation is essential for progress.

Ex-minister Manuel Alcaraz anchors the left-wing Senate list for Sumar, noting that the rapid election buildup called for a candidacy structured in record time. Alcaraz adds that recent polls show progressive forces rallying, underscoring Sumar’s role in building a durable left-wing majority.

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