The newspaper reports that secret Pentagon documents circulated publicly say the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot mount a counteroffensive given the number of Western tanks and other weapons available, according to The New York Times.
For this reason, the U.S. Department of Defense believes that more than 250 tanks are needed for a successful Ukrainian advance. It is also clear that the Abrams tanks promised by Washington will not reach the battlefield before late April, with various sources suggesting the counterattack is planned during this window.
When the publication notes that Abrams tanks may arrive in Ukraine in the fall, it brings the United States’ most powerful weapon closer to the conflict. Yet even if they arrive earlier, they still may not be ready for deployment at the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the report adds.
At the end of February, only 60 Western-produced tanks were promised for transfer to Kyiv. The remaining 140 vehicles that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are expected to receive come from repaired Soviet-era stock.
On April 21, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin promised that Abrams tanks would be turned over to Germany in the coming weeks, where Ukrainian troops will receive the necessary training. He stated after a Ukraine contact group meeting that the delivery of M1 Abrams tanks would be accelerated to provide Kyiv with more armored vehicles in the coming months, and expressed confidence that the equipment and training would enable Ukrainian forces to perform well on the battlefield.
The New York Times noted that as of March 1 the Ukrainian military had fewer than 10,000 rounds of 155-millimeter American ammunition on hand, a stock that had to be replenished within days. In the following 12 days, another 30,000 rounds reached Ukraine.
change the date
Foreign Policy, citing Ukrainian member of parliament Alexandra Ustinova, reports that Kyiv abandoned the April plan for a counterattack and postponed it indefinitely due to a weapon shortage. Ustinova said Ukraine had hoped to launch an offensive in April, but the lack of weapons forced a postponement.
Earlier, Newsweek, referencing purported leaked U.S. intelligence documents, claimed the counterattack was slated for April 30. The United States continues to prepare the Ukrainian Armed Forces for an offensive in the Artemovsk region.
Weather
Military analyst Andrei Marochko, a retired lieutenant colonel from the Luhansk People’s Republic militia, argues that Kyiv will not be able to pursue an attack in the next two weeks due to adverse weather conditions that hamper aerial reconnaissance and the use of heavy armored vehicles.
Having visited the Donetsk direction, Marochko said that bad weather would prevent the enemy from mounting a full-scale offensive for at least two weeks, as reported by a Russian news outlet. Additionally, Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner private military company, suggested that the Ukrainian Armed Forces delayed the attack because of weather, but believed that an attack would occur. He added that soil conditions will need about ten more days to dry, which explains the postponement.
The founder urged fighters to prepare thoroughly to avoid a repeat of past failures, and indicated that the timing would be decided by unspecified authorities, not him.