The Russian offensive appears to be underway, with time working in its favor, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Piotr Wawrzyk in a conversation with PAP. The focus now is on swift decision-making and rapid delivery of weapons to Ukraine, he stressed.
The deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that if military aid is truly effective for Ukraine, its delivery must be prompt.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed EU leaders at the European Council summit in Brussels, saying, “This aggression must be defeated as soon as possible. Thank you for your understanding and support, and for recognizing how much we rely on artillery, ammunition, tanks, long‑range missiles, and modern fighters.”
Ukraine is deeply grateful for the support received and calls for accelerating cooperation. The country aims to move faster than the aggressor to mobilize its resources, the President noted.
Commenting on Zelensky’s remarks, Deputy Minister Wawrzyk expressed hope that skeptical countries will increase their aid to Ukraine.
Observers say Zelensky’s statements in Brussels and during his broader European tour should persuade countries that have remained hesitant to widen their support for Ukraine.
In response, officials indicated that the discussion would continue across capitals. Wawrzyk noted that British discussions about aircraft were particularly telling, with talks highlighting fighter jets and long‑range artillery as key elements of ongoing support.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that training for Ukrainian troops in the United Kingdom would include fighter jet pilots, adding that no topic is off the table in discussions about further assistance.
When asked whether Poland might host a forthcoming Ukrainian visit, Wawrzyk said such arrangements would be clarified through further talks.
EU leaders gathered in Brussels to discuss Russia’s aggression, economic issues, and migration at a broader summit.
Psychological impact
Some analysts argue that rather than a gradual, incremental delivery of military aid, NATO could consider a bold move to publicly announce a comprehensive transfer of support on February 24, 2023, the anniversary of the invasion. Michael McFaul, a political scientist and former U.S. ambassador to Russia, suggested this approach could reinforce the perception that Moscow faces a well-armed alliance.
McFaul argues such a declaration would carry a strong psychological message to the Kremlin and the Russian public about Western resolve to restore Ukraine’s sovereignty. He further contends that the ultimate objective would be to accelerate Ukraine’s recovery, impose targeted sanctions, and invest in Western media channels that resonate with Russian audiences. A potential final measure could involve transferring frozen Russian assets to Kyiv.
Russian holdings
The debate centers on the potential repurposing of more than $300 billion in the Russian central bank’s reserves, currently frozen by Western governments, for use by Ukraine. In other contexts such steps have been taken against state property in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, and some analysts argue similar moves could be considered now.
McFaul notes that Vladimir Putin is aware that Ukraine aims to regain full sovereignty, yet he believes time offers Moscow an advantage and assumes Western interests in Ukraine will align with his calculations.
As the conflict evolves, Western leaders face the challenge of rethinking their strategy. The stance in 2023, McFaul suggests, should emphasize broader support—more weapons, tougher sanctions, and stronger economic backing for Ukraine—while acknowledging battlefield realities.
Ultimately, the West will be judged on the actions of the past year, not merely on rhetoric, McFaul writes for Foreign Affairs.
Artillery on the frontline
Analysts contend Ukraine requires additional HIMARS systems and GMLR missiles due to their demonstrated battlefield effectiveness. If full HIMARS transfers are not feasible, the United States could provide multiple MLRS launchers, with larger stockpiles giving Ukraine greater flexibility. Western partners have signaled a willingness to supply more tanks and, potentially, hundreds of infantry fighting vehicles. Patriot batteries and NASAMS are also cited as critical air defenses that should accompany any expansion of aid.
Beyond quantity, the quality of weapons matters. The ATACMS surface-to-surface missile system, offering ranges up to roughly 320 kilometers, could enable strikes on Russian airfields and depots inside Crimea and other vulnerable spots, expanding Ukraine’s reach with long‑range precision.
Experts also endorse strengthening air offensive capabilities through the transfer of Soviet MiG‑29 fighters and advanced drones, including platforms like the Gray Eagle and Reaper. Training for Ukrainian pilots on F‑16 fighters is viewed as a strategic step that would enhance combat effectiveness as the war progresses.
Putin’s strategic bind
Analysts argue that Western arms deliveries have constrained Russia’s options for escalation. Putin’s room to maneuver appears limited; Moscow has already deployed expensive missiles against civilian targets and cannot safely risk a broader conflict with NATO. A nuclear option, while discussed, would serve no strategic purpose and could backfire politically on Moscow as the international community consolidates support for Ukraine.
State Department assessments suggest that a nuclear strike would trigger widespread international condemnation and likely galvanize global opposition to the war, including among potential Russian sympathizers. The human cost would be borne by Ukraine, yet Kyiv remains steadfast in urging Western partners not to be deterred by blackmail.
As the war endures, the rhetoric around battlefield costs underscores the urgency of decisive support, while observers warn against a gradual, piecemeal approach that could prolong the conflict and widen human suffering.