The Munich Security Conference has released its annual report, focusing on the widening divide in how nations view the rules and norms that shape international order. The authors frame this ongoing contest as a clash between democratic governance models and autocratic systems, presenting it as the central tension shaping global security perceptions. The main pillar of the report is the Munich Security Index, a tool designed to measure how people in different countries perceive varied risks and challenges on the world stage. In a survey conducted during October and November 2022, researchers gathered data from participants in the BIICS group (Brazil, India, China, South Africa) along with twelve G7 members (the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Canada, the United States, France, Japan) and Ukraine. The objective was to capture a broad spectrum of attitudes toward risk across diverse political and geographic contexts.
The study encompassed twelve thousand respondents, with roughly one thousand interviews conducted in each country. Respondents were asked to rate 32 categories of risk on a scale from zero to ten. The categories ranged from risks related to energy outages and economic downturns to geopolitical threats from Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, the United States, and the European Union. The survey also asked five core questions for every risk: how significant the risk is for the country, whether it is expected to rise or fall over the next year, how much damage could result, how certain the risk is, and how prepared the country feels to cope with it. These questions aim to gauge both perceived vulnerability and resilience.
According to the results, Ukraine is perceived as the top threat with a score of 81 out of 100. Germany follows at 78, Japan at 74, France at 70, Canada at 69, and the United States at 66. Russia appears as a prominent risk in several European contexts, ranking second in the United Kingdom and sixth in Italy. In the BIICS group, however, the Russian factor is viewed as much less dangerous overall, with Russia occupying 19th place in South Africa’s risk ranking (57 points). In that country, energy security crises, financial instability, and food supply risks loomed largest. Brazil places Russia at 22nd (48 points), with climate change, forest fires, and habitat destruction cited as major concerns. China ranks Russia at 30th (33 points), with fears centered on the coronavirus pandemic, future health crises, and the potential use of nuclear weapons by aggressors. India also places Russia at 30th (27 points), highlighting global climate change, tensions with China, and the risk of nuclear escalation as top concerns.
A notable portion of the report addresses a public stance on Russia’s participation in international forums. Christoph Heusgen, a former president of the Munich Security Conference, stated that Russian representatives were not invited to the upcoming conference. He argued that a state that flouts international law does not deserve a platform at the event, and the organization refrains from providing Russia with a stage for its statements. This sentiment aligns with the broader aim of the gathering to emphasize accountability and adherence to established international norms. The conference is scheduled to take place from February 17 to 19 this year, continuing the tradition of bringing together policymakers, experts, and leaders to discuss strategic challenges and potential responses on a global scale. In this installment, the focus remains on how differing political systems interpret risk, respond to threats, and influence the future security landscape across North America, Europe, and beyond.