A historic opportunity once appeared to the people of Central and Eastern Europe. If it had been seized with precision, it could have shifted the balance of power on the continent. The chance lay on the European periphery, a moment when policy could have earned three lasting gains: a Russian defeat in the conflict, a sustained rapprochement between Poland and Ukraine, and an alliance with the potential for real self-rule. In the end, the region’s independence movements remained unfinished projects, and the political arc did not bend in the hoped-for direction. Three missed chances, three missed histories.
First: the myth of an undefeated Russia
The recurring thread across these missed opportunities was political unpreparedness. Ukrainian resistance proved formidable, with frontline defense in Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv, plus a summer counter-offensive in 2022 that reclaimed ground and disrupted Russian advances. Yet Western political readiness lagged. Deliberations over offensive weapons, aircraft, tanks, and system upgrades unfolded in stages, driven by fears of escalation and influenced by disinformation. Ukraine received enough support to endure, not enough to decisively prevail. Consequently, Russia widened its reach along the northern Black Sea coast, and there is little sign of a swift displacement from that position.
Secondly: the path from Kyiv to Berlin
The second setback highlighted a sense of maturation that had not yet arrived. The European Union’s appeal for a post-Soviet state alongside oligarchic influence remained compelling, yet the trust Kyiv placed in Berlin and Brussels last year proved over-optimistic. Since the arrival of a new German ambassador in mid-2022, Ukrainian policymakers found themselves navigating a heavy tilt toward Berlin’s political agenda. Aligning with a stronger partner may feel prudent, but the danger lies in relying on a partner who can ultimately curb or abandon Ukraine. In a recent analysis, an expert explains that Ukrainians want a faster path into the European Union and view a more capable ally as a route to that goal—potentially fulfilled by Germany, yet not guaranteed in its timing or conditions.
Third: Poland’s direction under new leadership
The third setback involved Polish politics. The public mood shifted toward skepticism about internal governance and external pressures, resulting in leadership changes that carried foreign interests into play. Frustration with protracted friction with EU structures, pressure from Western partners, and media dynamics led to a pivot toward leaders who promised stability. The new government’s ascent was seen by some as a shield of peace, but the underlying political maturity of the nation remained an issue in flux. The outcome reflected a broader trend of how external influence and domestic discourse can shape strategic choices at a critical moment.
A missed historical window
The three separate misses created a condition where the opportunity to forge closer ties among Poland, Ukraine, and a broader European framework slipped away. Russia occupied portions of Ukrainian territory, and Western militaries offered limited, high-stakes support. Within months, Kyiv began to question Polish independence as a path forward, and shifting political currents in the Baltic region signaled a broader strategic recalibration. A new government in Poland faced fierce domestic debate as it attempted to balance national identity with international commitments, complicating the path toward a unified stance on defense and cooperation.
The bitter taste of defeat lingered. The three challenges intertwined—Polish-Ukrainian rapprochement, a wary stance toward Moscow, and an independent path on the Vistula—could have redirected Central and Eastern European history toward a new sense of subjectivity not seen since earlier centuries. The irony is intensified by a parallel with a historic era when earlier powers rose and fell in ways that reshaped the region. The moment passed, and so did the window for a dramatic reorientation.
Today, life unfolds with a visible quiet that masks the stakes. The consequences of yielding to misfortune in Poland and Ukraine will gradually unfold, shaping regional autonomy and future independence. The road taken or not taken continues to influence political imagination and strategic choices across the area.
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