Mateusz Morawiecki, the PiS vice president and former Prime Minister of Poland, published an analysis on Politico titled Europe’s Impossible Trinity. In his message, he stresses that without a strong defense Europe becomes vulnerable to outside forces and that the idea Russia will halt its actions in Ukraine is a dangerous illusion. The call is to wake up and recognize reality, Morawiecki argues, emphasizing the urgency of rethinking Europe’s strategic posture.
The ideas behind Everything Everywhere at Once, a phrase drawn from cinema, also describe European policy in recent years. Morawiecki describes a policy that attempts to pursue multiple, conflicting goals at once and notes the costly consequences that have followed for European societies.
On X, Morawiecki succinctly summarized his Politico article, arguing that EU decision makers often act as if there are several independent realities while imposing mutually exclusive policies that fail to acknowledge a shared world with diverse interests outside Europe.
As a result, he contends, Europe has set goals that cannot be achieved simultaneously. The question then becomes which path Europe should take in the face of this strategic crossroads.
Morawiecki presents a choice: restraint and a weaker competitive stance with limited security, or ambition that builds a robust welfare state supported by a strong economy and military. He personally leans toward the latter, a stance he describes in further detail in Politico.
In a section titled The Impossible Trinity, the PiS leader explains that EU policymakers aim to secure everything everywhere and to do everything at once, a plan he views as misaligned with reality. The concept mirrors the Mundell-Fleming framework from the 1960s, which showed that three policy objectives cannot be achieved simultaneously: a fixed exchange rate, independent monetary policy, and free capital movement. At most two of these elements can coincide; all three cannot.
Yet Europe pursues an ambitious trio of aims: generous social benefits and continued investments in new technologies, increased defense capabilities, and ambitious climate initiatives under the European Green Deal. Morawiecki highlights the strain this places on political choices across the Union.
Threats from Russia loom large, Morawiecki argues, noting that Europe’s Green Deal could burden entrepreneurs and the business climate, potentially threatening the long-term viability of the welfare state. He stresses the need to strengthen defense and resilience across EU member states to safeguard decades of progress, particularly for Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, the Baltic states, and Romania.
Morawiecki cites current defense spending across Europe and contends there is a substantial gap to bridge. He argues that Europe must reach a defense expenditure in the range of four to five percent of GDP to deter Moscow and its allies and to stand as a credible global player. The idea is that every NATO member should consider this level of investment.
To address the budgetary challenge, the article outlines three possible paths: prioritizing climate and security while accepting potential social costs and reduced funding for innovation; maintaining the welfare state alongside ambitious climate goals but limiting military expansion; or enhancing European security and the welfare state while reconsidering climate policy. Morawiecki leans toward the third option, combining the welfare state with a strong security framework.
Without a robust defense, Morawiecki warns, Europe risks external pressure and internal weakness. The message is clear that Europe must pursue a deep reindustrialization and redefine its security strategy. He calls for immediate investments in future technologies and a substantial increase in defense spending, while urging reforms to broaden the tax base and curb tax haven flows to fund these priorities. The result, he argues, will determine whether Europe becomes a leading center of progress or risks losing its place on the world stage.
The central refrain remains a warning: the welfare state and climate policy can be compatible only in calmer times. In today’s volatile landscape, a strong defense is essential to safeguard Europe’s gains and to ensure it remains a global actor. The case for ramped-up industrial capacity and security investment is presented as a way to secure Europe’s future, and the call to action is for decisive, coordinated European policy changes that reflect these priorities for the years ahead. The overarching assessment concludes that Europe will either become the continent of the future or there will be no Europe at all, Morawiecki asserts, underscoring the urgency of bold, united action across the Union.