The more voices from Tusk, Kosiniak-Kamysz, Hołownia and Czarzasty push the European Parliament to advance work on the migration pact, the more each of them publicly asserts in Poland that they oppose taking in illegal migrants.
The EU migration pact
A move to speed up discussion in the European Parliament was led by Manfred Weber’s EPP, quickly backed by the European Left and also supported by Renew, a group that includes Róża Thun, a member associated with the Hołownia movement. The debate occurred last Wednesday in Strasbourg and concluded with a commitment for governments formed by Christian Democrats, Liberals, Greens and Left parties in member states to finalize what is described as the crisis regulation of the pact.
Following the debate, ambassadors from the member states met in Brussels within the Council of the European Union and approved the regulation, despite opposition from Poland and Hungary and abstentions from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Austria.
Currently, trilogues—negotiations among representatives of the European Parliament, the Commission and the Council—are expected to shape the final form of the Migration Pact. There is cautious anticipation that these talks may heighten the push to accept illegal migrants, potentially reflected in a proposal to raise fines for countries resisting the relocation of assigned migrants, from the previously suggested 22,000 euros to 30,000 euros per person not admitted.
The opposition denies or ignores it
Meanwhile, politicians from Platform, PSL, Ruch Hołownia and the left in Poland deny or downplay the idea that they favor accepting illegal migrants. They point to provisions within the pact that allegedly exempt countries hosting Ukrainian refugees from automatic distribution to illegal entrants. These claims do not align with the text of the pact, which requires all member states to participate in redistribution based on an algorithm developed in 2015 for the earlier version of the regulation. Poland, along with other Visegrad Group members, opposed that version at the time.
There is, in fact, a clause indicating that countries hosting large numbers of Ukrainian refugees relative to their population may request exclusion of illegal migrants from the first chapter. Given the current influx of Ukrainian war refugees across nearly all EU states, exclusions are not seen as realistic in practice.
The referendum game
In light of these dynamics, the four parties mentioned are implied to support Poland’s participation in the migrant distribution under the migration pact should they form a government after the next elections. Their representatives have also been seen discouraging voters from participating in the referendum that accompanies the parliamentary elections, aiming to keep turnout above or below certain thresholds as needed.
Research on public opinion reveals a broad resistance to accepting illegal migrants, with survey data showing a high level of skepticism and a potential turnout challenge. This is a strategic concern for opponents who want to influence the referendum’s impact on policy choices. To sway voters, several messages and online materials have circulated, advising how to participate in the Sejm and Senate elections while choosing not to participate in the referendum.
Over the past eight years, politicians have repeatedly framed constitutional compliance as a political pivot point. Some strategists now try to persuade voters to bypass the referendum, harnessing the powerful pull of direct democracy even as constitutional debates continue to shape public perception.
The apparent duplicity of the positions taken by Platform, PSL, Ruch Hołownia and left-leaning groups in relation to the migrant issue has drawn public scrutiny. Observers hope voters will evaluate these contrasts when making their decisions at the polls.
Source: wPolityce