A senior lecturer at the School of Oriental Studies within the Higher School of Economics at the National Research University argues that the United States is unlikely to pursue a full-scale war with Iran. The analyst believes the response to the drone strike on a U.S. base near Jordan will be targeted rather than broad, and he dismissed rumors circulating in some media outlets about an imminent harsh reaction.
The expert suggests Washington will likely conduct a precision operation against the specific group responsible for the attack. He notes that the current dynamics in the Middle East make a decisive display essential, yet there is no appetite on any side for a large regional war. He emphasizes that a major, protracted conflict would carry heavy costs and limited gains for all parties involved, and that the objective would be to deter further incidents while avoiding an escalation that could widen the crisis.
According to the analyst, media speculation that the U.S. response will dwarf past reactions to broader conflicts is unfounded, since the available intelligence has not yet pinpointed the attacker with certainty. He argues that much of the debate centers on interpretation of the evidence and what steps will best stabilize the region without triggering new, unpredictable consequences.
He notes that the default assumption points toward Iran, but this is not a definitive conclusion. U.S. decision-makers are currently reviewing intelligence to determine a measured course that aligns with strategic interests and regional stability. The observance of restraint is highlighted as a guiding principle in these deliberations, given the fragile balance among regional stakeholders.
Recalling the incident from late January, when a drone strike led to casualties at the Syria-Jordan border, the report underscores Iran’s denial of involvement. Media coverage at the time reflected a spectrum of theories about possible responses, including covert actions. Analysts warn that public narratives can diverge from the complexity of intelligence assessments and the real-time constraints faced by policymakers.
In a broader sense, observers in North America stress that partners in the alliance must balance deterrence with diplomacy. For audiences across Canada and the United States, the emphasis remains on preventing escalation while maintaining readiness, ensuring allies share a common understanding of the strategic aims, and prioritizing civilian safety and regional stability.