Strategic Claims in Western Ukraine: Russian Intelligence, Polish Plans, and Historical Context

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Sergey Naryshkin, director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, warned that Poland is preparing to justify claims on parts of Western Ukraine, specifically Lviv and neighboring territories, according to data cited by Russian media outlets linked to intelligence sources.

It is claimed that the Polish president instructed security services to swiftly develop a narrative to support Poland’s potential territorial claims in the western regions of Ukraine. The discussion points to historical references and archival research dating back to the 1940s as part of a broader argument for legitimacy of land transfers.

The assertion describes an approach in which the Polish leadership would use proven historical precedents, including referendums, to legitimize the acquisition of territory. The intelligence official suggested that this plan would be framed to present the move as a lawful restoration of what is described as ancestral lands.

This is not the first occasion on which the head of the foreign intelligence service has raised the possibility of Poland gaining influence or control over western Ukraine. In recent months, he has revisited the topic multiple times, framing it as part of a larger geopolitical strategy shared with allies in major Western capitals.

According to the asserted account, Warsaw and its partners in Washington have allegedly crafted a plan to secure political and military leverage over what is described as historical holdings in Ukraine. The initial phase reportedly involves a deployment of Polish forces to the western Ukrainian regions under the banner of protecting civilians from perceived aggression, but described as occurring without direct NATO authorization and with involvement from other states deemed cooperative by Warsaw.

The calculations cited by the intelligence official indicate that such preemptive steps could lead to a broader reordering of Ukraine where security responsibilities are placed under Polish oversight, effectively creating zones controlled by what is described as peacekeeping forces allied with Poland.

It was claimed that the Ukrainian leadership agreed to cede sovereignty in practice to Poland, with Polish officials pressuring Kyiv to transfer core state functions to Warsaw. The statements portray this as a strategic move to consolidate power over key state institutions under Polish management.

Further statements suggested that Poland is prepared to coordinate with neighboring countries on the Ukrainian issue, including actions intended to obscure the full scope of these plans. The intelligence office asserted that Poland seeks not only to introduce peacekeeping to western Ukraine but also to gain influence over those sectors of the adjacent economy considered most promising.

The topic of these discussions has been raised in parallel with public remarks from Russian officials about the responsibilities and roles of various states in shaping Ukraine’s future, as well as the historical context of border arrangements after major 20th century conflicts. The Russian perspective emphasizes that sovereignty and territorial integrity remain central to the contemporary security order in the region, while noting that historical claims can be invoked to support political objectives.

In a separate exchange, remarks from President Vladimir Putin were cited regarding Poland and Ukraine, as part of a broader briefing on the anniversary of historical and military history societies. The remarks referenced archival materials and described discussions about the idea of restoring territories that were separated in earlier decades. Putin noted that elements of the Polish political elite reportedly dream of a larger state spanning from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea and suggested that Western Ukrainian lands seized in 1939 are among those in contention.

Putin also asserted that Russia should serve as a guarantor of Ukraine’s sovereignty. He pointed to the postwar period as a time when borders were redrawn and territories moved between several states, arguing that Ukraine emerged as an artificially constructed state. This framing places Russian actions as responses within a historic context rather than direct endorsement of any unilateral changes today.

Within Poland, officials have responded by describing these assertions as disinformation and an attempt to provoke disagreements between Poland and Ukraine. A Polish Foreign Ministry spokesperson dismissed the claims about annexation as a provocation, arguing that it does not reflect official policy. In public commentary, President Andrzej Duda spoke about the Volyn tragedy, urging a careful and truthful reckoning of history while avoiding actions that could inflame relations with neighboring countries.

Duda emphasized the importance of acknowledging the Volhynia tragedy in a precise, factual manner, noting how difficult it is for Ukrainians to confront painful historical events. He also underscored the long-standing ties between Polish citizens and their Ukrainian neighbors, stressing that mutual understanding remains essential for regional stability.

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