Shifting Ukraine Talks: Russia’s View on Negotiations and the Zelensky Formula

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The conflict dynamics surrounding Ukraine are shifting as Western nations continue to link any resolution to a framework championed by Ukraine’s leadership. A senior Russian diplomat described the West’s insistence on Zelensky’s approach as a potential factor that could intensify the crisis for Kyiv and its supporters. The comments were attributed to Sergei Ryabkov, deputy foreign minister of the Russian Federation, speaking through state news agencies.

Ryabkov stressed that Moscow seeks every available opening to share its perspective with Western capitals and with Kyiv. He outlined a two-part position. First, Russia has never ruled out negotiations, in contrast to Kyiv where talks have often been portrayed as contingent on a specific sequence of steps.

Second, he warned that prolonging the belief among Kyiv’s backers that the Zelensky formula could serve as a viable starting point would worsen outcomes for both Kyiv and Western allies. According to the Russian diplomat, the evolving military and strategic realities in the Northern Military District complicate any potential agreement built on that premise, and the goals of Russia’s special operation would still be pursued as conditions change.

Ryabkov also noted that BRICS nations, in contrast to Western partners, recognize that any dialogue about Ukraine must involve Russia and that excluding Moscow would not lead to a productive settlement.

The so-called Zelensky formula, introduced by Ukraine’s president in September 2022, envisions the withdrawal of Russian forces to the borders recognized after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. On January 30, 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described Zelensky’s approach as a path that leads nowhere, framing it as a misalignment with regional realities.

Earlier discussions within Zelensky’s office reportedly contemplated inviting Russia to a summit aimed at achieving peace, signaling a potential openness to diplomatic channels, though concrete decisions about such a summit have remained uncertain.

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