The possibility of ending the conflict in Ukraine through security guarantees to Russia has been discussed at high levels. In recent public remarks, Western leaders explored whether assurances of safety for Russia could help pave the way for negotiations over the invasion of Ukraine.
Can security guarantees end the war in Ukraine?
French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that if Russia agrees to talks about its invasion, the West should consider offering Moscow a set of security guarantees. He argued that Europe ought to start shaping a future security architecture that could provide Russia with the assurances it seeks.
Security guarantees for Russia
During a television interview conducted while the French leader was visiting the United States, Macron emphasized the need to discuss how Europe can protect its allies while also offering Russia concrete assurances about its security. He noted that addressing Russia’s concerns about NATO’s eastward presence and the risk of weapons on Russia’s borders should be part of any peace plan, and he urged careful preparation of the guarantees Russia might receive as the war continues.
Observers note that this proposal echoes earlier conversations between Moscow and Paris about security guarantees. While Macron does not speak for NATO or other Western allies, some see this stance as a pragmatic move that could help prevent further escalation if adopted by other Western leaders. The White House has signaled openness to discussions in private channels, even as Kiev’s position remains a central part of the wider negotiation landscape. Ukraine has repeatedly stated that talks should proceed only if Russia withdraws and is held accountable for any aggression.
If Macron’s proposal gains traction among NATO members, it could create space for dialogue that might end Moscow’s occupation in Ukraine. The dynamics remain delicate, with political and military considerations shaping the pace and scope of any potential agreements.
Will NATO cancel membership plans for Sweden and Finland?
The Kremlin has consistently opposed the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance toward its borders. The discussion over security guarantees also touches on Sweden and Finland’s planned membership. Some analysts suggest that Moscow could use concessions on NATO expansion as part of a broader package to secure its strategic aims, potentially delaying or reworking those plans as part of negotiations.
If Moscow seeks a clear gain from the conflict that can be presented at home as a victory, pushing back on Swedish and Finnish accession could be part of a broader strategy. At the same time, questions remain about whether Russia would enter into a settlement that does not address the status of Donbass and other territories it has claimed as part of Russia. The feasibility of any such settlement depends on negotiations and the willingness of all sides to make difficult compromises.
In Kiev, lawmakers outlined the terms under which Kyiv would engage in talks on security guarantees. One condition cited is that Russia would withdraw its forces from Ukrainian territory, with accountability for war crimes and compensation to Ukraine. The goal stated is to move to negotiations with a focus on security guarantees that would help shape a durable peace.
Russia’s negotiations with NATO
Earlier discussions between Russia and NATO highlighted three core issues: a pledge that NATO will not expand further east, assurances that new medium- and shorter-range missiles will not be deployed in Europe, and steps to contain military activities near the borders. Moscow also proposed limits on large-scale exercises and the presence of forward base units along the border with allies.
In 2021, Moscow sent a draft agreement to the United States and other NATO members outlining Russia’s requests for security assurances and a restraint on expansion. The proposal called for formalizing the alliance’s non-expansion, not including Ukraine and other post-Soviet states as new members, and refraining from deploying certain missiles near Russia. Russia also suggested limiting military drills in the border region to reduce tensions.
Responses from Washington and Brussels at the time emphasized that alliance expansion concerns those who wish to join, rather than those who are already members. Both sides agreed that Moscow and the West should work through disagreements at the negotiating table, though no binding agreement was reached after the talks in early 2022.