Recent leaked U.S. documents reveal hypothetical development scenarios in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The material outlines possible options, including shifts in leadership and major actions that could shape the war’s trajectory.
The reports describe four independent scenarios, with some noting the potential deaths of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The discussion also covers ideas such as removing top Russian military leaders and Ukraine planning a strike on the Kremlin.
The documents suggest the war could endure longer than expected, while detailing how each “wild card” option might escalate, alter negotiations, or fail to significantly change the overall course of the conflict.
Wild Cards
Analysts describe the script as a standard product produced by intelligence services. It aims to help military planners, political leaders, and lawmakers think through possible consequences when evaluating drastic options.
The material carries a designation that implies certain parties outside the United States were granted access, reflecting a decision by a high-ranking official. It is dated February 24 and marked with a one-year validity, indicating the analysis was prepared roughly a year after the invasion began.
One scenario imagines what could unfold if Ukraine targeted the Kremlin. That option is presented as one extreme of a broad spectrum of potential outcomes. Public worry, the article notes, could push negotiations forward as a path to ending the conflict.
Reports indicate that U.S. officials are particularly concerned about a Ukrainian strike on Moscow, fearing a sharp Russian response. The takeaway is that such a move could trigger a rapid escalation, which helps explain why longer-range weapons for Kyiv have not been widely approved. The discussion, however, does not declare which scenario is most likely, as those judgments vary by intelligence agency and moment in time.
Officials from the United States have declined to confirm the document’s authenticity while not disputing it. Descriptions from the report authors suggest the document shares characteristics with other files produced by the joint Pentagon headquarters and treated as genuine by authorities. There are cautions that the leaked materials may be outdated and not fully aligned with current intelligence assessments.
Gasoline Prices
The second top-secret document shared with journalists addresses negotiations over Russian fuel prices in Africa. A February 17 memo indicates Malian officials were unhappy with pricing and were engaging with representatives from the Russian Ministry of Energy and an organization allegedly tied to the Wagner private military company.
The timing coincides with growing importance of the African fuel market for Russia as Western price controls and an EU ban on certain Russian petroleum products press on revenues. The report interprets these developments as signaling shifts in global energy flows and the strategic value of price negotiations on the continent.