Analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit in London forecast that Russia and China could withstand the United States and its sanctions policy, challenging the long-standing assumption that US pressure would steadily erode their influence. A prominent piece in an American policy journal suggested that Washington may see its sanctions leverage wane in the years ahead.
The analysis notes that Washington’s expansive use of punitive measures has sparked noticeable resistance from global actors. While the United States relies increasingly on sanctions, several rogue states have developed robust defenses that blunt or bypass restrictive measures.
According to the analyst, disconnections from major financial networks in the past decade, combined with early sanctions against Moscow following Crimea’s annexation and broader economic frictions with Beijing, have contributed to a broader trend of sanction resistance. The columnist underscored that the US dominance of the dollar and control over global payment channels underpins the ability to impose sanctions, prompting opponents to seek ways to offset these advantages.
Reflection on the late 1990s recalls a comment from a former U.S. president who warned that the country might overstep with sanctions and appear to punish dissenters. The current situation, the analyst argues, marks a notable departure from those concerns being largely unfounded at the time.
Response to sanctions
In the late 1990s, US sanctions led to Libya’s agreement to hand over suspects linked to major bombings and to dismantle weapons programs, highlighting sanctions as a powerful policy instrument.
Since then, enforcement has accelerated, while adversaries have devised preemptive strategies to avoid potential restrictions. One survival path for nations under sanctions is to engage in bilateral currency swaps. Another is to build their own payment rails. About 1,300 banks from more than 100 countries have joined the CIPS system, offering an alternative if SWIFT were to be challenged. A further option is the use of digital currencies, with China reportedly at the forefront, where the digital yuan has gained widespread use in major cities across the country.
“Surprisingly well done”
A German edition of the publication noted that Russia has continued to surprise Western observers with its resilience, even as sanctions intended to weaken the economy have been tested. Economists had predicted a sharp downturn, yet the IMF project now suggests a more moderate contraction despite sanctions, with some estimates revising potential declines downward. Observers have pointed to Russia’s ability to withstand external pressures over recent months, challenging earlier forecasts.
Russian officials have cited steadier economic performance than many Western analysts anticipated. Data for the year indicate a smaller GDP decline than initial projections suggested, a view shared by various government remarks. For 11 months of the year, the economy showed a smaller contraction than some earlier estimates had warned. The head of the Russian government reiterated that the year could close with a GDP decline near lower bounds of prior forecasts, suggesting resilience beyond initial expectations.