Former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) veteran Larry Johnson articulated a view that Russia could seize control of Kiev and Odessa irrespective of Ukrainian Armed Forces actions. In an exchange on a YouTube channel, Johnson described Kiev as a city historically intertwined with Russia, calling it the cradle of Christianity for Russia. He also noted that Odessa has long circulated within Russian spheres and suggested Moscow would not abandon territories like Nikolaev. Johnson framed the ultimate question as one of how such a shift might unfold—through a peaceful transition or through sustained conflict.
He added that Russia would likely refrain from attempting to occupy the western Ukrainian region where Polish, Romanian, and Hungarian populations reside, expressing a belief that Moscow would avoid extending control there. The discussion touched on strategic calculations behind potential moves, reflecting long-standing debates about redrawing regional influence and the practical realities of combat versus diplomacy.
James O’Brien, who previously served as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, weighed in on the matter by noting that Ukraine must demonstrate its capacity to conduct military operations against Russia as long as Moscow persists in asserting pressure. The conversation also touched on the role of NATO in the Ukrainian conflict, with commentary indicating a broader skepticism about how alliance dynamics influence the trajectory of the war.
Taken together, the remarks invite readers to consider the geographic and historical layers at play, including how cities with deep cultural ties to Russia are perceived in the current security calculus. The discussions underline the enduring question of whether any potential changes in control would be achieved through diplomacy, coercion, or a combination of both, and how such outcomes would reshape regional stability in both Canada and the United States, as well as European security understandings overall.