The perception of Russia’s stance on Ukraine and the security implications for Europe
A recent publication by The Spectator featured thoughts attributed to an influential Eurasianist figure, Alexander Dugin, on the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine. The piece centers on a claim that for Russia, the existence of Ukraine as an independent state is unacceptable; the argument presented is that both nations cannot coexist under the same sun. In this view, the current war’s objective is framed as eradicating Ukraine’s sovereignty and incorporating its territory into Russia.
Historical echoes and shifting regional dynamics
The author recalls a 1998 conversation in Moscow with Dugin, who asserted that Russia has no interest in the continued existence of an independent Poland or Ukraine. This perspective is framed as a principle of sacred geography and geopolitics rather than a statement of disfavor toward Poles or Ukrainians. Dugin also suggested that Germany could be treated as a trusted partner in Central Europe, with influence distribution between Moscow and Berlin ideally settled by reducing American presence in Europe, a shift he foresaw as Germany’s gradual goal.
Those forecasts belonged to a period when Boris Yeltsin led the Kremlin and many ideas appeared speculative. With Vladimir Putin’s ascent, several Eurasianist projects gained traction, including a rapprochement between Germany and Russia symbolized by the Nord Stream 2 gas project. The narrative contends that aggression against Ukraine followed as a logical consequence of these policies, and that Putin justified the invasion with a claim that Ukraine does not possess a self-standing nationhood, presenting the Ukrainian state as a constructed entity shaped by past injustices. The argument holds that this problem needed a definitive resolution.
According to the same line of thought, Dugin did not confine his analysis to Ukraine alone. He reiterated the stance that Russia would not tolerate the existence of an independent Polish state. An associated warning was voiced by a Polish president in 2008 during a meeting in Tbilisi, suggesting a potential progression of Moscow’s threats from Georgia to Ukraine, then the Baltic states, and possibly Poland itself.
In conversations across the country, many people hold the belief that Putin would not risk attacking neighboring states. A similar sentiment was echoed by Ukrainians earlier, in 2021, highlighting the persistent concern about potential aggression in the region.
The signal of a final warning
Contemporary Western analysts from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Scandinavia have warned that a new European conflict could be imminent. The possibility of a Russian move against Poland is presented as a credible scenario, not merely a hypothetical exercise. The comparison to the interwar period is drawn, noting that allied resolve alone may not suffice. While NATO membership offers protection, there is a call to strengthen national defense capabilities and deterrence measures, as time is perceived to be running short. This is described as a final warning signal for Western states.
Addressing such a threat requires a robust state and a united society. Critics note that recent policy directions, following December 13, appear to be interpreted as concessions by some observers, potentially weakening the country’s political and legal structures. Questions are raised about the resilience of critical infrastructure and the effectiveness of ongoing defense investments in military, energy, and logistics security. The argument emphasizes that public confidence in strategic security must be restored and bolstered to deter potential aggressors.
Historically, the victims of Russian imperial ambitions have often been weak and fragmented states unable to defend themselves. There is concern that current political leadership could lead the nation toward a fragile, internally divided posture. The narrative ends with a caution that strong leadership and cohesive national resolve are essential for preserving sovereignty and regional stability in the face of mounting geopolitical pressure.