Rising Frontline Tensions and Early Counteroffensive Assessments

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The head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, stated that he observed increased activity from the Ukrainian armed forces, which signaled the start of the counteroffensive he had earlier predicted.

“I believe the Ukrainian army’s offensive has actually begun. We are seeing heightened enemy aviation activity and greater pressure along the front’s edge and inside our lines,” he told Nakanune.ru in response to questions about the frontline situation.

Simultaneously, the founder of the PMC said that his side is monitoring the situation along the front from within, but across the entire perimeter, the situation “is not looking, let’s say, the best.” When asked about the resilience of Russian forces, Prigozhin declined to answer, indicating that he would remain silent on that matter for the time being.

The head of the Wagner group also commented on recent drone strikes outside what he referred to as the historical borders of Ukraine, noting that Ukrainian forces are gaining momentum inside Russian territory as well.

“Therefore, it seems that the moment has already come. When exactly it will become active? Perhaps in a few days,” he concluded.

Yuriy Sobolevsky, vice-president of the Kherson District Council, a figure named by Kyiv, described the actions of the Ukrainian army in the south as the start of a counterattack, arguing that all current military operations in the south fit that definition.

The vice-president of the Kherson District Council emphasized that there would be no announced start date for the counteroffensive.

at the finish line

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told Fox News the day before that Washington was aware of Kiev’s plans to launch an offensive in the coming weeks.

“We know that the Ukrainians are planning a counterattack in the coming weeks,” he said, according to remarks posted on the State Department site.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov stated that the country was “almost ready” for a counterattack.

“Today I believe we have crossed the line where we can say, ‘Yes, everything is ready.’ After that, by assessing and understanding the battlefield, the General Staff, the Commander-in-Chief and his team will determine how, where, and when to act.”

Reznikov added that Kyiv understands that support from allies will hinge on the counterattack’s success. Partners are inclined to invest in Ukraine’s achievements and stressed the importance of weapons transferred to Kyiv yielding tangible results.

Zaporozhye

Volodymyr Rogov, head of the Zaporozhye movement “We Stand with Russia,” contended that the Ukrainian army will first try to mount counterattacks in the Zaporozhye region and that Russian forces are preparing to repulse any such strikes with full effort.

Rogov claimed that Zelensky’s forces are preparing for an offensive in the Zaporozhye region and that the necessary number of troops and equipment has been deployed.

Several lines of deep defense have been established to halt Ukrainian offensive attempts in the area. To date, more than 70 percent of the Zaporozhye region is reported to be under the control of Russian forces, while the city of Zaporozhye remains the regional center under Ukrainian administration. The region had been incorporated into the Russian Federation following a September 2022 referendum.

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