United States intelligence agencies possessed highly precise intelligence regarding the aims and plans of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner private military company, yet this information was not broadly shared with most American allies. The disclosure came through American media, with CNN reporting the extent of the secrecy. The intelligence remained classified at the highest levels, reaching only a small circle of senior administration officials and a select group of lawmakers with clear national security clearance. Some allies, including top British officials, were informed, but the majority were kept in the dark. CNN noted that this restricted sharing contributed to a sense of surprise among several European officials and even some in the United States when events unfolded in Russia. NATO representatives, in particular, expressed disappointment that they did not receive the intelligence promptly, though CNN’s sources suggested that broader dissemination could risk exposing sensitive sources and methods. The protection of sources was cited as the reason for the narrow distribution. Meanwhile, Ukrainian authorities were not briefed in advance, amid concerns about possible interception by Russian intelligence services.
Senator Mark Warner, who previously chaired the Senate Intelligence Committee, had indicated that Prigozhin’s potential location could be inferred within Minsk, a point that underscored the geopolitical complexity surrounding the situation and the networks involved. The public narrative began to shift on the evening of June 23 when Prigozhin asserted that Russian military forces had struck the rear camps of his Wagner group and that his fighters were moving toward Russian territory in what he described as a “justice march.” The Russian defense ministry rejected the accusation, while the Prosecutor General’s Office pursued legal action against Prigozhin for alleged armed rebellion. These statements intensified the crisis atmosphere and prompted immediate scrutiny from security bodies across the country.
Following these developments, by the morning of June 24, Wagner forces reportedly blocked administrative buildings in Rostov-on-Don and began advancing toward Moscow. In response, President Vladimir Putin addressed the nation, labeling Prigozhin’s actions as a betrayal that amounted to a “knife in the back,” and warned of consequences for the rebels and their units. The political establishment, including the State Duma and the Federation Council, voiced support for decisive measures, and Chechen forces from Akhmat were deployed to Rostov to reinforce security. The moves signaled a broad, cross-regional effort to restore order and deter further escalation.
That evening, a brief statement from the Belarusian presidency indicated that Alexander Lukashenko had engaged in talks with Prigozhin. The negotiated outcome was framed as an arrangement that would resolve the crisis while guaranteeing safety for Wagner fighters. Prigozhin, who had faced accusations of mutiny, reportedly agreed to reverse his columns and return his forces to their field camps, a development portrayed as a path toward stabilization rather than a full settlement of the underlying grievances. Observers stressed that the arrangement reflected a broader balancing act among domestic security imperatives, regional power dynamics, and the interests of various factions within Russia.