A recent survey shows a strong belief among Poles that the Law and Justice party stands the best chance of winning the upcoming elections. The Civic Coalition trails in second place, indicating a clear split in public expectations about the electoral outcome.
The research was commissioned by the Wiadomości program from TVP and carried out by the MANDS Institute. Respondents were asked a straightforward question about which party they expected to win the election.
According to the results, 57.4 percent of Poles favored Law and Justice as the likely winner. The Civic Coalition received 29.3 percent in the same question, reflecting a substantial gap between the two leading camps.
Confederation in third place
The Confederation party secured third place, though its share stood at only 2.4 percent. Other groups attracted smaller levels of support, with Left at 1.8 percent and Third Way at 1.6 percent. Nonpartisan local government workers and the Polska Jest Jedno committee each recorded 0.7 percent in this poll.
A portion of respondents, 6.1 percent, indicated they did not know or could not decide which party would win. The remaining respondents contributed to minor shares for other options outside the top ranks.
As with any public opinion measure, the results reflect a moment in time and the questions asked. Factors such as recent political events, candidate visibility, local issues, and media coverage can influence voter expectations. Analysts often compare multiple polls to identify trends and to gauge how public sentiment shifts ahead of the vote.
In discussing these findings, observers may consider the broader political landscape, including how coalition dynamics and party messaging resonate with different segments of the electorate. The data highlight the importance of turnout forecasts and the potential impact of undecided voters on final results.
Notes on methodology and interpretation are essential for understanding the numbers. Polls like this one provide a snapshot rather than a definitive forecast. They serve as a gauge of public expectations and a tool for assessing party positioning ahead of the election date.
Source attribution: Wpolityce, with data provided by the TVP Wiadomości program and the MANDS research institute. The figures are reported as percentages of respondents answering the main question about the likely winner.