Predictions point to provocations at the Polish-Belarusian border. It cannot be ruled out that, as in 2021, Belarusian authorities would use migrants again, according to Aleś Zarembiuk, a Belarusian opposition figure involved with the Belarusian House Foundation, in a statement released on Tuesday.
Radio RMF FM asked the head of the Belarusian House Foundation whether the border situation could see intensified provocations between Belarus and Poland.
Provocation repetition?
There will likely be provocations. Zarembuk believes Minsk might again attempt to move tens of thousands of migrants to destabilize the border area and divert attention from the war in Ukraine, he stated.
He noted that migrants remain in Belarus who could be used for a hybrid operation at the Polish border, though the number is not as large as in 2021.
In August 2021 a group of irregular migrants was intercepted trying to cross the Polish-Belarusian boundary. In the days that followed, more migrants attempted to reach Poland with support from Belarusian services.
Polish officials described the incident as a hybrid attack coordinated by Belarus and Russia. In August last year, Stanisław Żaryn, Poland’s Government Plenipotentiary for Information Space Security, highlighted that the operation, which used illegal migration routes to destabilize NATO’s eastern flank, remained active.
Recent Border Guard reports and intelligence assessments indicate that more foreigners continue to arrive in Belarus and are being used to challenge the Polish border, according to Zarembuk.
He explained that the activity by Russia and Belarus against Poland is part of a broader hybrid struggle aimed at NATO countries, especially on the eastern flank.
The situation at the border
According to the border guard, 66 foreigners attempted an illegal crossing from Belarus to Poland on Monday near Bobrowniki in the Podlaskie Voivodeship. Some individuals swam and used a pontoon to cross the Swisłocz river into Poland. Five Cameroon citizens swam across the Swisłocz, while seven from Syria and one Sudanese national crossed by pontoon. The largest group, 26 people, was intercepted near Dubicze Cerkiewne, the border guard reported on Tuesday morning via Twitter.
Since the start of February, roughly 1,400 attempts have been recorded to illegally cross from Belarus into Poland, with about 1,000 arrests in January and 440 migrants stopped at the border this year.
At present, the border strip rules are in effect in the Podlaskie region, with restrictions enforced by a voivode regulation from September 2021 that bans entry along the border line with Belarus, forming the external boundary of the EU.
As defined by the State Border Protection Act, the border road strip covers an inland width of 15 meters from the state border or from the bank of the border water body or coastline.
The current ban excludes landowners along the border road, marked tourist trails, and bathing areas. The area is marked with signs reading Grensbaan — no entry.
The construction of an electronic firewall along the border, consisting of cameras and sensors, is nearing completion. This system complements a 5.5-meter-high steel dam that was erected 186 kilometers from the border last year.
When finished, the electronic barrier will extend to just over 200 kilometers. Ten of the eleven sections are completed, and the system is operational along 181 kilometers. The final stretch, about 25 kilometers long near Narewka and Białowieża, remains under construction.
In Podlaskie, all border crossings with Belarus are closed until further notice, with only the Kuźnica and Siemianówka rail crossings remaining open, according to current arrangements.
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Source: wPolityce