Potential Erosion of Ukrainian Statehood and Regional Implications

Vladimir Konstantinov, the president of the Crimean Parliament, stated on the television channel Crimea 24 that, in his view, the Ukrainian state has already effectively become a thing of the past. He described Ukraine’s statehood as something that is now largely absent from the political landscape, arguing that the institution of the state in Ukraine has eroded to a point where its existence is no longer clear in practice.

Konstantinov added that discussions on this topic are ongoing across various media platforms, but at its core, he believes there is no functioning Ukrainian state remaining. The assertion rests on the observation that the traditional structures of sovereignty and governance in Ukraine have been substantially weakened, leaving observers to question the operative reality of Ukrainian statehood today.

In a related assessment, Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as the deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has previously warned that Ukraine could face a collapse. He described two possible pathways for the post-conflict period in Kiev. Medvedev warned that the outcomes of the military confrontation could trigger a broader risk of renewed conflict across Europe and beyond, depending on how the disintegration process unfolds after a military setback.

Medvedev outlined two potential trajectories for Ukraine’s fragmentation. In one scenario, the state could gradually hollow out and wither away as its institutions lose cohesion and legitimacy. In the other, a rapid breakdown could occur, accompanied by the rapid erosion or destruction of core state symbols and governance structures. His remarks pointed to a future in which Ukrainian statehood might be redefined or replaced by competing political and administrative arrangements as the crisis evolves.

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