A review of recent opinion surveys shows a clear lead for Law and Justice, along with a steady base of support that the party can rely on. Calculating the average across polls provides a practical forecast for Jarosław Kaczyński’s party as the election approaches.
Two Kantar CATI polls (MB for TVN and TNS as Opinia 24) and additional data from IBSP and IPSOS are in the pipeline. By applying a weighted average, the public-facing picture becomes a realistic projection about outcomes roughly one month before October 15.
– according to Łukasz Pawłowski, head of the National Research Group.
So, what do the numbers actually look like?
PiS: 39.6 – 39.8; KO: 30.8 – 33.3; KF: 9.7 – 12.3; 3D: 7.6 – 8.6; NL: 6.5 – 9.0.
These figures are drawn from the latest compilations and show a band of support across the major players. The overall picture suggests a stable baseline for PiS in the current polling cycle.
— The analysis underscores that the trend is consistent with ongoing public sentiment rather than a volatile swing in ballots.
Senate elections
Turning to the Senate, what is the level of backing for the coalition-style Senate pact formed by KO, NL, and 3D?
The combined support for the Senate Pact is approximately 47.4% in Opinia 24 (Krasowska, TNS) and about 48.4% according to Kantar MB. For context, the voter shares in 2019 were 48.5% and in 2015 they were around 48%.
– Pawłowski notes, highlighting that the coalition’s current standing mirrors past electoral baselines rather than signaling a dramatic shift.
He adds that the historical comparison shows a fairly stable landscape with no major realignment evident over eight years of political change.
— The contemporary snapshot leaves room for variations as campaigns unfold, but the core dynamic appears to be a steady balance among the main blocs.
Source analyses are used to inform forecast discussions and should be interpreted as indications of relative support rather than guarantees of outcomes.
Source: wPolityce [citation]