Last week, the studio’s polling showed a notable shift: support for Law and Justice led the field, signaling a real boost in backing for Jarosław Kaczyński’s bloc.
READ: OUR RESEARCH. A striking result for Law and Justice. The takeaway? A sense of unity, a sharp focus on key issues, and a rallying behind a clear strategy.
Even as some observers dismissed the findings from the Third Republic of Poland circle, later checks from other surveys confirmed the trend and kept the momentum in view.
What stood out was a visible surge for the Kaczyński faction, which has been pursuing a precise, high-energy campaign over recent days. The question remained: how strong would the lead become?
The latest reading from the studio’s effort, conducted for a political portal, highlighted a striking breakthrough in the vote distribution. The front four parties appeared to rise to the top, signaling a possible reshaping of the electoral landscape.
Let’s examine the numbers in detail.
If parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, United Right was polling at 40 percent among respondents, up by one point from the previous week.
Civic Coalition stood at 31 percent, gaining two points.
Confederation attracted 11 percent of the survey, down by two points.
Left remained at 7 percent, with no change.
Poland 2050, led by Szymon Hołownia, slipped to 4 percent, losing one point.
PSL saw 3 percent support, also down by one point.
Kukiz’15 and Agreement showed no change, maintaining roughly one percent in the polling mix.
The analysis has long focused on party-by-party support to preserve continuity over time. Yet there was also a scenario explored with the addition of the Third Way coalition to the lineup.
In that scenario, the shifts were modest: small increases for PO, Konfederacja, and Lewica, while Third Way remained behind Poland 2050 and PSL. The question persisted: would the coalition shift things in any meaningful way, either by boosting one side or by dragging down others?
Against this backdrop, the odds of the surprise alliance breaking the 8 percent threshold were not very encouraging.
A second takeaway: the momentum for Confederation appears to be fading in the near term.
Third, as analysts predicted, the closer the elections get, the more polarization tends to tighten around the largest parties, leaving smaller formations with less space to maneuver. This pattern is likely to intensify as polling continues.
Now, a quick note on methodology and timing.
The survey used a CAWI approach (Computer Assisted Web Interview) and was conducted from August 25 to 28, 2023, using an online panel that was representative nationwide across gender, age, and residence size. N=1040 individuals participated in the study.
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Note: the figures reflect respondents’ selections at the time of the survey and may shift as campaigns evolve and new information emerges.