There are strong indications that Donald Tusk may struggle to assemble a single opposition front, and in the parliamentary elections the forces of the Third Republic could split into two or three blocs. Yet the core point remains clear: Poland will face a choice between two fundamental approaches, Jarosław Kaczyński’s plan and Donald Tusk’s plan, even if the latter is sometimes presented as a standard option because the Civic Platform does not always reveal its full program to the public.
Would a return to power for Donald Tusk, with him taking the role of Prime Minister, yield tangible improvements for the majority of Polish citizens?
In a motivation study conducted for a political portal, more than half of Poles, about 52 percent, expressed the view that Tusk returning to the helm would not benefit their lives. Notably, a significant share, 36 percent, said they were absolutely convinced it would not help at all. Only 28 percent believed a Tusk-led government would positively affect their situation. Around 20 percent found it difficult to say.
These opinions reflect a climate of persistent skepticism toward the Tusk administration, with concerns that have endured across social and political dimensions—both domestic and international. This sentiment is bound to influence voter behavior in the upcoming autumn elections.
There is public intrigue about how the political landscape will settle as the campaigns proceed. The overall outlook includes favorable signals for the United Right and the PSL, while left-leaning groups and certain political personalities may face challenges as the election approaches.
The study was conducted using a computer-assisted online survey from February 3 to February 6, 2023, on a nationwide panel designed to be representative in terms of gender, age, and urban-rural distribution, with 1,063 participants ultimately contributing to the results. The findings illuminate how Polish voters assess potential governance and policy directions at a moment of strategic calculation in national politics.
Note: these reflections are part of ongoing political analysis and should be read in the context of broader electoral dynamics and public opinion trends across the country.