Polish Opposition Campaign Dynamics in 2025

In a campaign built around fielding its own lists and backing the Tusk-Trzaskowski duo, the Civic Coalition remains in talks with Szymon Hołownia about potential list coordination, though such discussions are described by PO politicians in informal exchanges as a mix of optimism and caution.

Since February, the Civic Coalition has been touring Polish counties under the #HereIsTheFuture banner. The itinerary follows a familiar pattern: Members of Parliament visit every powiat, the KO leader Donald Tusk holds an open meeting in a smaller town, and on the following day a partially public gathering of the Civic Coalition club is held in the regional capital.

We should note that the experience of the tour so far has not produced a clear boost in KO or PO polling. The campaign’s impact on public opinion appears limited, and some polls show a decline for the Civic Coalition alongside a small rise for PiS. A CBOS reading from February to March shows PiS edging up to 38 percent while the Civic Coalition slips to 18 percent, with the broad opposition vote fluctuating in the low to mid-teens.

Officials and supporters say the effort follows established campaign practices: listening to people, discussing their concerns, and proposing practical solutions, even those reminiscent of “grandmother’s remedies,” yet early polling data remain unchanged for the better so far.

Some KO interlocutors believe that nationwide engagement could bear fruit in time, though assessing the full effect will take until June when the tour wraps up. A number of MPs cautioned that the final verdict hinges on long-term reactions rather than brief impressions from the tour alone.

Tusk Looks to Trzaskowski as a Strategic Complement

With poll numbers not diverging as hoped, KO strategists shifted to a broader mobilization approach and considered presenting Rafał Trzaskowski, the Warsaw mayor and one of PO’s vice chairs, as part of the campaign roster. Trzaskowski, who polled strongly in 2020 before losing to Andrzej Duda, is being lined up to participate in numerous meetings, according to KO insiders.

He is described as a key participant in the campaign, with the Warsaw president’s schedule being aligned to KO’s broader planning. The emphasis remains on Donald Tusk as the campaign’s central figure, while some deputies note the wide, multi-person leadership structure that can accommodate Trzaskowski in important roles.

As a senior KO figure explained, Tusk’s leadership is complemented by a team of vice presidents who engage actively in campaign events. Another party member highlighted that Trzaskowski’s role could extend beyond a single office and may emphasize expertise in international affairs along with potential positions within Poland’s government framework if and when the coalition governs.

Possible Prime Ministerial Scenarios

Within KO discussions, there is debate about whether Trzaskowski could be positioned as prime minister, or as a key partner in government leadership, while some still consider alternative trajectories. One KO member referenced historical strategies, noting that political alliances sometimes hide certain candidates to present others prominently, and suggested that a similar approach could be explored in the current cycle.

While some see this as a potential route, others are cautious. A source close to KO indicated that the idea is interesting but unlikely to be fully realized in the near term.

Sławomir Nitras, an ally of Trzaskowski, was asked whether Tusk had already designated Warsaw’s president as a second leader in the campaign. He explained that the campaign focus remains on Donald Tusk as the party leader and that change would not serve the effort.

Winning First, Governing Next

A KO MP stressed that while Trzaskowski may be advanced for roles beyond the prime ministership, the immediate goal is to win the election and then build a government. Others echoed the sentiment, emphasizing mobilization and turnout as the priority for supporting KO candidates.

Another KO figure suggested that Trzaskowski already holds a lead among potential presidential contenders, positioning him as a strong alternative in the party’s broader strategy for 2025.

The Campaign Pace

KO representatives assert that the period for negotiating a joint list may be ending as the Civic Coalition pivots to launching its own extensive campaign. One MP remarked that if other groups do not opt for a unified slate, there will not be one.

Interviews and Talks with Hołownia

Reports from Wyborcza.pl indicate that a first meeting between Donald Tusk and Szymon Hołownia occurred around the Easter period. KO politicians acknowledge these discussions in conversations with reporters and view them as potentially decisive talks about joint lists, with a rough estimate that the likelihood of a unified slate stands at about fifty-fifty.

Additionally, Nitras remarked in Express Biedrzycka that he had not been briefed about the Tusk-Hołownia talks, yet his political intuition suggested that progress is being made. He described the June 4 mobilization as an important chance to demonstrate the capacity to work with the opposition.

As the cycle unfolds, the KO’s approach remains focused on practical campaigning and broad outreach, aiming to mobilize voters while navigating the shifting landscape of coalition negotiations.

Source: wPolityce