Poland’s prime minister warned that military support from China to Russia would mark a decisive turning point in US-China relations. In a televised interview, he suggested that Vladimir Putin enjoys broad backing among Russians, comparing public sentiment to the support Adolf Hitler received in Germany during the 1930s. This, he argued, could mean the war in Ukraine would endure for a prolonged period.
It represents a red line, the prime minister said, a Rubicon in the ties between Washington and Beijing, underscoring the gravity of warnings about potential Chinese weaponry reaching Russia.
That sounds very serious
Speaking on the program, he described Russia and China’s posture as a serious threat and warned that it could signal the first step toward an alliance that would pose a major risk. He also highlighted remarks by Xi Jinping as Putin departed Moscow, suggesting new opportunities to alter a century-old international order that he described as significant.
The prime minister noted that the current moment offers an unprecedented chance to shift the established order, a point he reiterated as he answered a question about the resilience and duration of the Ukraine conflict.
When confronted by journalist Kristen Welker about the possibility of Ukraine’s war lasting multiple years, the head of government affirmed the likelihood of a drawn-out struggle.
Russia is endowed with vast natural resources and a large population, he argued, and public opinion in Russia broadly supports Putin. He drew a parallel to historical conditions in the 1930s to illustrate the depth of public support and the ease with which a leader can sustain power, suggesting this makes Putin’s position more resilient than that of some Western leaders.
The prime minister emphasized that although Ukrainian forces have shown determination, the Russian military cannot be underestimated, indicating a need to prepare for a protracted conflict.
Regarding unaffiliated reports of Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, he said he did not have precise information but affirmed Ukraine’s right to act and its compliance with existing agreements with its allies. He expressed confidence that such strikes would not trigger a direct NATO-Russia war, arguing that Russia would lose such a war quickly, and that Moscow is aware of this possibility.
He also stated that, despite internal Kremlin disputes and battlefield missteps, Putin’s influence remains robust and not in immediate jeopardy.
F-16s for Ukraine?
Addressing the topic of supplying F-16s to Ukraine, the prime minister noted conversations at the White House with Vice President Kamala Harris but did not observe a shift in U.S. policy. He added that Poland does not intend to deploy F-16s. Yet he acknowledged that developments over the past year—such as Ukraine’s candidacy for EU membership and Western tank deliveries—have altered what previously seemed unattainable.
He observed that both Vice President Harris and President Biden recognize the gravity of the conflict, though he suggested that some Western European circles may not fully grasp its implications. He warned that a Ukrainian defeat would set back decades of peace and stability.
Commenting on Germany’s decision to transfer MiG-29s from German stocks to Ukraine, the prime minister said he was not surprised, while indicating he would not insist on a German response beyond this decision given past positions regarding Russia and joint energy projects including Nord Stream.
He argued that without these gas pipelines, Russia might not have chosen to attack Ukraine.
Issues with Ukrainian grain
When asked about fatigue in Polish society from the war, including the hosting of Ukrainian refugees, the prime minister acknowledged concerns about public sentiment. He recalled tensions over Ukrainian grain imports, which had sparked farmer unrest and political volatility, and said he had discussed the matter with Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, in Washington with a view toward a swift resolution. Still, he stressed that refugees themselves do not cause domestic disruption; on the contrary, they contribute positively to the Polish economy.
Refugees are described as aiding growth, paying taxes and social contributions, contributing to GDP, and not imposing greater costs on the budget than the value of their labor, according to the prime minister.
He also admitted concerns about American public opinion ahead of the next presidential contest, foreseeing that primaries early next year could influence attitudes toward Ukraine. He encouraged a strong spring and summer offensive to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position with President Zelensky, emphasizing the importance of anticipating what lies ahead.
Talking about a visit to an Abrams tank production facility in Alabama, the prime minister urged speeding up tank production, noting Poland’s plan to order more tanks beyond the 250 Abrams already contracted.
Regarding the leak of classified U.S. intelligence documents, he stated his continuing reliance on U.S. services despite the scandal and compared it with historical incidents of government email leaks in other countries. He highlighted ongoing ties with U.S. intelligence agencies and recounted meetings with their leadership, stressing forthcoming procedures to prevent future incidents and aligning with President Biden’s view that the disclosures were not critical.